Well i called the short term drop back when it did, and honestly was surprised that the mid term longer trend went the other way. So the short term call proved quite profitable for me, but mid term analysis was wrong. The thing about it is, the demand is inflated and supply is actually more then stated. When you have the media hyping a shot fired on a boat and other hype bs, you keep getting these pops. Its irrational exuberance as its a well known fact, that we can make synthetic oil out of coal for between 55-65 a barrel.
In addition as with the onset of alternatives coming, that should also ease the demand in the mid to longer term. If oil gets to high, it will kill itself no matter peak or not. Lets face it we have the technology to make oil extinct. Using oil at this point for our energy needs is like using a prehistoric club as a hammer. It just a matter of time before real alternatives and supply and distribution chains replace the oil addiction.
Now you here hype about china and India energy needs fueling the spike of oil, but most of what they consume is coal based. The point is, eventually without a cheap energy source to propel the global economy, there will be no growth. All ready we are seeing a shift in energy behavior as oil at 130 is becoming cost prohibitive. So a paradigm shift is under way, in the short term if oil hits 200 i will short the sheeeeeet out of it, because at that point no one will be driving and you might see worldwide protests. The price gets too high no one will buy it, and alternatives will emerge quickly to fill the void.
