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0 point   posted on 07/07/08
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Intelligence
48%
-16.07%
 risk: conservative

Regional Banks which ones will fail????


Which one of the regional banks will fail or cut dividends first? A lot of them have made loosing 5% a day a regular event.



Keycorp - Ohio housing exposure

Suntrust - heavy florida housing exposure

National City - all round poor shape

  Related to:  
BKX PHLX/KBW Bank Index
SPX S&P 500


Comments (12)

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Intelligence
joeyjoejoe   48%     0 point   commented 509 days ago reply

Marshall & Ilsley Corp. issued a surprise warning late Thursday as the lender sets aside more money to cover loan losses from the slumping housing market.

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its counterparty credit rating to "A-/A-2" from A/A-1." It lowered its long-term counterparty credit rating on the company's lead bank to "A" from "A+." The outlook remains negative.

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allstarinvestor   85%     1 point   commented 509 days ago reply

another regional to look at is WM even though they have been thrashed thus far they have more recently moved into extending risker credit to their credit card customers which should come back to bite them

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traderdrew   51%     1 point   commented 505 days ago reply

short them all... and your odds of success increase hahah

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loneranger   38%     1 point   commented 503 days ago reply

If indymac is any indicator it might not be a bad idea to short those banks with heavy southern california exposure

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Gekko
Walter Thatcher   74%     1 point   commented 502 days ago reply

I agree with traderdrew. Short one of the regional bank ETFs like KRE.

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joeyjoejoe   48%     0 point   commented 501 days ago reply

Today just reenforces to sell harder. Cramer and others are telling people the bodies are coming and the market is now expecting it.

Who are these bad banks of which Cramer speaks? He broke them up into two tiers:

The Worst:
Downey DOWNEY FINL CORP (DSL), Corus (CORS), FirstFed Financial (FED) and BankUnited (BKUNA).

Almost as Bad as the Worst:
National City [NCC], Washington Mutual [WM] and First Horizon [FHN].

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allstarinvestor   85%     1 point   commented 498 days ago reply

the ones that should fail are the ones who maintain sub prime real estate exposure, risky credit exposure, and low tier one capital ratios

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Kbe_4-14
nextfundmanager   N/A     1 point   commented 497 days ago reply

a lot of analysts have come out this week with their expectations for which ones will fail, normally I am very critical of analysts but this time maybe it will at least give people some ideas

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stampada   62%     1 point   commented 494 days ago reply

Too much advance warning of the coming collapse. Too many people are hugging the portside rail. Too many folks are sure that the final end is nigh. Gold can only go up. The dollar can only go down. All of these warnings are becoming so increasingly shrill - with each repetition - that they are beginning to sound like the squeals of the lemmings plunging over the precipice to their impending doom. Rationality tends to be an imperfect guide at major turning points. Perhaps it is now time to be an observer of trends and to look forward to a somewhere in the future inflection point.

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Kbe_4-14
nextfundmanager   N/A     1 point   commented 483 days ago reply

the dollar has been rising fast as of late and gold has been dropping

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loneranger   38%     1 point   commented 483 days ago reply

Suntrust just bought the assets of a bank that failed on friday which may mean they will be ok for a while, but who knows

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allstarinvestor   85%     1 point   commented 482 days ago reply

I am surprised how easily the FDIC has been able to move the assets of failed banks over to other banks who dont seem to be in any better position


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