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2 points   posted on 07/15/08
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Funny_1_
83%
+23.44%
 risk: conservative

The year of obvious moves


Today's market suggests a pretty obvious strategy. The financial stocks will get trashed as will anything severely affected by high oil and gas prices. People will flock to oil and gas for obvious reasons and perceived safe stocks like precious metals. Everything connected with real estate will go splat. The more fragile retailers will get into trouble.

Retailers such as Walmart that should do ok when people are looking to save money may suffer from market jitters even if they are sound and so I wouldn't take any position on them.

Likewise there are lots of areas where there is an argument, such as whether Apple with its new innovations will do well in spite of a market where fewer people will be buying computers.

But why choose an argument when elsewhere there is clear direction?
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INDU Dow Jones Industrial Average
COMP NASDAQ Composite Index
SPX S&P 500


Comments (6)

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Thomas George    9 %     2 points   commented 499 days ago reply

LOL ! Good point.

Well I think we might have to take sides because the short financials route is too well known now and will get crowded going forward.This would increase the risks going forward of a short squeeze with little upside potential as the stocks are already down 50%+.This is not the case at present but will be at some point.My answer to the question would be to get huge returns at the short selling game one would have to take positions no one else is taking (after due diligence and a liberal dose of common sense).And no this is not greed.Shorting when a stock is very overvalued actually lessens risk by giving a margin of safety.
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allstarinvestor   85%     1 point   commented 497 days ago reply

every year is a year of obvious moves when we look back.
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nextfundmanager   N/A     1 point   commented 496 days ago reply

there were many fund managers you jumped in to C in the forties and higher it wasnt so obvious to them... and as such I can only ask you the obvious question, what will happen next
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nextfundmanager   N/A     1 point   commented 482 days ago reply

it looks like the long energy short financial trade is over for now
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Locationh   61%     1 point   commented 482 days ago reply

Take advantage of the times. This years loosers will be next years winners.
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nextfundmanager   N/A     1 point   commented 482 days ago reply

I would say the good stocks that got pulled down with the market are the ones to watch for, not just all the ones that have fallen

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