With the market going in the opposite direction from the indicators for a few months, there isn't much to do but sit back and wait for the hacks and punters to run out of gas.
There is also a nonsensical seasonal change in certain industries such as energy when fuel prices go up in the summer, for example. It doesn't make any sense because cycles that will recur every year don't tell you anything about the value of the company. Sure there's a summer, and after that there'll be a winter, just like every other year.
More relevant would be comparing summer results to summer results and winter results to winter results each year.
There may be a lot of trading because it can be maddening to stop trading to wait for the medium term trend to reverse and return to the long term trend, which these days is down for most areas of investment.
The payoff for that can be finding good entry points.
If fuel and other consumer energy prices go up this summer, like last summer that may strangle the economy and trigger a large collapse.
In the short term the surge may continue a little while, fed by people who make a living getting others to invest every month, not just when it makes good sense.
In the long term, the new SEC rules will lead to some companies folding Enron style as they have greater leeway in fudging their numbers and may crash abruptly when they run out of cash.
California and other states may not be able to meet all of their obligations in the coming months.
Over the long, long term I would say that energy prices and their stock prices will have to go up regardless of what happens in the states, due to global competition for resources.
I'm tempted to put in a bunch of shorts right now but the present unfounded rallies in the markets have shown surprising staying power in the face of bad numbers.
