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gregdonaldson's Blog Posts
JNJ
The Hidden Power of Rising Dividends
11/15/09
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I have written and spoken about the Hidden Power of Rising Dividends compared to bonds for nearly 20 years, yet, I find that many people do not grasp and retain the concept. The primary reason for this is that most people think of stocks as investments you trade and bonds as investments that you hold...
Third Quarter Earnings Derby: Bears on the Run
11/09/09
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With only few companies left to report earnings for the third quarter, some striking trends are apparent in the data. For four consecutive weeks the % positive surprises have held steady at between 80% and 85%. This is the highest quarterly earnings-beat rate that I have ever seen and shows that US ...
Third Quarter Earnings Derby: The US of A Gets in the Act
10/30/09
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Third quarter S&P 500 earnings results for the first three weeks of the season continue running far ahead of Street estimates. Importantly, however, recent weakness in some economic data has overshadowed the better-than-expected earnings and caused stock prices to fall sharply. The pullback in st...
Third Quarter Earnings Derby: The Beat Goes On
10/23/09
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Third quarter S&P 500 earnings results for the first two weeks of the season are running far ahead of Street estimates. Importantly, sales are also faring much better than expected. Here's a short breakdown of the results thus far for the S&P 500 companies:Earnings Reported through FridayPo...
John Burr Williams' Lament
10/16/09
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John Burr Williams is widely credited as being the father of dividend investing and the creator of the forerunner of today's dividend discount models. Williams was also a first rate economic strategist. Williams was already a successful Wall Street investor, when in 1937 he went back to Harvard. Wil...
The 3rd Quarter Earnings Derby Is About to Begin
10/09/09
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Next week 3rd quarter corporate earnings reports will begin in earnest. We project that this quarter's earnings will, again, beat expectations by a wider margin than is now anticipated by most investors. We said the same thing just prior to second quarter releases and the earnings results even outd...
Survivor's Bounce About Over
10/01/09
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I recently completed a simple analysis of the S&P 500 that argues strongly for a shift in leadership in the market. I computed the 6-month total returns of all stocks in the S&P 500 and then compared the top 250 performers with the bottom 250. Here are my findings.Performance MetricsTotal Ret...
NSRGY
Nestle's Recent Dividend Growth Is Impressive
09/17/09
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We like foreign stocks. They have been outperforming domestic stocks since March, and we think they will continue to do so. Here are three reasons:Most of these companies derive a minority of their earnings in the US. This will benefit them as it becomes clear that the US economy will lag the glo...
More Principles of Dividend Investing
09/11/09
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I read article after article about dividend investing and, in many cases, I hope that no one is really following the suggestions being made. The reason for my concern is that I have tried about every form of dividend investing known to man, including dividend capture strategies, since I became a div...
The Barnyard Forecast Smells Good for Stocks
08/21/09
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Randy Alsman authored this blog. Randy is Vice-President, Portfolio Manager, and Member of Donaldson Capital Management's Investment Policy Committee. Please read more about Randy here.Donaldson Capital Management for years has developed our long-term stock market forecast through a set of analyses ...
Divergencing From the Consensus for 2010
08/14/09
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When we said that the stock market was turning in mid March of this year, cries of "pollyanna" rang out. When we said that second quarter earnings were going to be better than expected --much better--cries of "you've got to be kidding me" landed all around us.It is now clear that the naysayers were ...
The Fair Value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average
08/05/09
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I have no idea how high the stock market can go over the next year. I have the theory that stocks trade at fair value about once every three years. Having just come through one of the most destructive bear markets since the Great Depression, it is unlikely that the market will suddenly become effic...
Above Expectations in Earnings and GDP Mean Stocks Will Continue Higher
07/31/09
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The answer to yesterday's question about whether better-than-expected earnings would lead to better-than-expected GDP is, "Yes." Thankfully, the deepest recession since the Great Depression may be coming to a close. Government data show that second quarter GDP fell by only 1%, less than the 1.5% co...
GDP
Do Better-Than-Expected Earnings Predict the Same for GDP?
07/29/09
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We said in an earlier blog that better-than-expected earnings combined with better-than-expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could be the catalyst for a new up leg for stocks.At the moment, the Dow Jones is stuck in a trading rage between about 8,000 and 9,000. The recent uptick in the markets has ...
The Earnings Derby, Week Three: Beat Rate Pushes Stocks Higher
07/24/09
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Stocks got another lift this week from second quarter earnings surprises. In our June 29, blog we said that earnings for the second quarter would be better than expected. In that blog, we said that cost controls would be the driving force behind the better-than-expected earnings. It is now clear t...
The Earnings Derby Week Two: Still Better Than Expected
07/17/09
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In our June 29, blog we said that earnings for the second quarter would be better than expected. Our reason for taking that position is that three of the four portfolio managers at our firm have managed large businesses. In their roles as presidents or general managers of Health-care, Consumer, or ...
Capitalism Means Giving the Ball to Jimmy Chitwood
07/14/09
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Whatever your political persuasion, the truth is capitalistic principles that have served humanity well, are currently under attack in the halls of Congress. Yesterday's Wall Street Journal sounded the alarm that the highest tax bracket may soon rise 11%, from 35% to 46%, by the time the Democrats i...
AA
FDO
Earnings Derby: And They Are Off!!
07/11/09
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We said in a recent post that we thought that corporate earnings would lead the next up leg of a new bull market. It may be the height of optimism, and we are sure we will be scolded for it, but we believe that "less bad" earnings growth will be rewarded by Wall Street with an uptick in stock prices...
Ten Principles of Dividend Growth Investing
07/02/09
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Many people forward on to me articles on dividend investing. These articles cover the waterfront from writers opposed to dividends completely to those who believe companies should pay a stated amount of their earnings in dividends. I find that I agree with very few of the articles I see. In most c...
Second Quarter Earnings Could Be Catalyst For Next Leg Up
06/29/09
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The stock markets and many other markets, as well, appear to be waiting for new news to give them direction. Most investors are now looking for a very gradual uptick in the economy in the third quarter, as well as modestly better housing news, and fewer nerve wrenching headlines from the banking sec...
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