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9 pts

Opinion on  The Ryland Group Inc. (RYL)     Sector: Capital Goods  >  Industry: Construction Services
1% inventory overhang may actually be 10%

May 23, 2008 04:28 PM GMT
Anything
Return Risk
+9.58% HIGH
Sr. Associate

Outer suburban nieghborhood homes may have negative values now that gasoline and commodity prices have accelerated.  Suburbs are inefficient, and really only exist in the US.  Earth to builders, stop making more homes.

The builder's inventories of land and unsold homes are probably worth closer to zero than what's on their balance sheets, such that book values are much much lower than many suspect.  Additionally, revenues should be hard to come by for every percent of loss the dollar suffers vs commodities, which makes "exurban" homes values closer and closer to zero or negative.  Earth to citizens, move back into cities, and plow those homes 100 miles away from your job back into farms.


RYL:  This call was made on 05/23/08 @ $28.08
Rating:   Negative   $28.08 (05/23/08)
Closed:   10/24/2008 @ $14.5 (+48.36% in 154 days)
Target:   $10.00 (-64.39%) in > one year


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Chirs_seaturtle
Market Speculator   54%     1 point   commented 532 days ago reply

I never got how people can drive 100miles to work w/out mass transit...makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Commute time isn't time well spent, its darn right wasteful!


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utopius previously rated RYL
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