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7 pts

Opinion on  Gafisa S.A. (GFA)
strong fundamentals

Jun 20, 2008 10:11 AM GMT
Astukphoto
Return Risk
-19.02% MID
Sr. Associate

Fundamental Analysis  

Today's stock selection:
GFA  Gafisa S.A.
Inspired by:
Brazil: GDP soon to surpass that of Canada
Brazil is far more than Petrobras ( PBR ).

A number of investors consider Brazil to be little more than another South American backwater. Most don't think of Brazil at all, when developing comprehensive portfolios. Perhaps this is an oversight.

I consider a valuable reference source of quick data to be the Central Intelligence Agency ( CIA ) " World Factbook ".
Information on every country is readily available, simply by typing the name into the cursor.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/

Gafisa S.A. operates as a homebuilder in Brazil. The company also engages in the development of land subdivisions, commercial buildings, and entry-level housing. In addition, it provides construction services to third parties. Gafisa primarily develops residential buildings targeted at middle- and upper-income customers. As of October 26, 2007, it sold approximately 900 developments and constructed 37 million square meters. The company was founded in 1954 and is headquartered in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

Profitability
Profit Margin (ttm): 13.24%
Operating Margin (ttm): 14.73%
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Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (ttm): 3.99%
Return on Equity (ttm): 11.20%
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Income Statement
Revenue (ttm): 787.17M
Revenue Per Share (ttm): 6.071
Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): 42.40%
Gross Profit (ttm): N/A
EBITDA (ttm): 123.69M
Net Income Avl to Common (ttm): 104.22M
Diluted EPS (ttm): 0.80
Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy): N/A
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Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq): 448.69M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 3.466
Total Debt (mrq): 677.62M
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 0.694
Current Ratio (mrq): 3.539
Book Value Per Share (mrq): 7.549

I consider this stock a buy with moderately aggressive risk.


GFA:  This call was made on 06/20/08 @ $36.95
Rating:   Positive   $36.95 (06/20/08)
Gain/Loss:   -5.28% in 531 days
Target:   $44.00 (+19.08%) in > one year
Allocation:   0.7% of portfolio


Comments (2)

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Kenny Shen   63%     0 point   commented 530 days ago reply

Can you share on the expansion view of Brazil? What are the risks involved? With only a book value of 7.xx, is this share overpriced or risky in a time when globally we're seeing a slowdown - property & construction sectors are usualyl never spared...? thanks!

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Astukphoto
Armin Stuk   22%     1 point   commented 527 days ago reply

Even though nation's key Bovespa Index is up 535% since 2003 -- almost nine times the return of Standard & Poor's 500 Index, Brazil is not perfect, around a third of Brazilians live in poverty, but growth around 4.7% and a sharp drop in inflation have made a middle class a bit richer that is buying wireless phones, traveling or going to college. The world's biggest exporter of raw material is highly dependent of global economy too.
It's a question of sustainability and whether a global economic slowdown would temper growth in this emerging market.
Anyways, investors should diversify its portfolios in such markets as enthusiasm for Brazilian stocks is far from complete. IMO


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