The FinancialContent Network     SocialPicks Community   |   MarketMinute Monitor   |   MarketMinute Market Updates   |   MarketMinute Stock News
SocialPicks
   Sign Up   |   Log In   |   What is SocialPicks?     
6 pts

Opinion on  Marshall & Ilsley Corp. (MI)     Sector: Financial  >  Industry: Regional Banks
Marshall & IIsley - Another regional in trouble

Jul 07, 2008 10:39 PM GMT
Intelligence
Return Risk
-16.21% LOW
Sr. Analyst

Marshall & Ilsley warns of 2Q loss
Thursday July 3, 3:32 pm ET

Marshall & Ilsley says it will record a loss in the 2nd qtr amid $900M loan-loss provision

Regional bank Marshall & Ilsley Corp. said Thursday a hefty loan loss provision it expects to post in the second quarter will push it into the red for the period.

Marshall & Ilsley said it will take a loan-loss provision of up to $900 million to cover charge-offs during the second quarter and to reserve extra cash to cover future losses. Banks across the country have been ramping up loss reserves amid a surge in defaults among many types of loans, especially those tied to residential real estate.

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its counterparty credit rating to "A-/A-2" from A/A-1." It lowered its long-term counterparty credit rating on the company's lead bank to "A" from "A+." The outlook remains negative.


Update 07/11:

CNBC article - http://www.cnbc.com/id/25622269

Big Swings

Investors fear the unknown. Pronounced sentiment swings have left bank stocks in recent weeks regularly falling (and sometimes rising) several percent in a single day.

And while lenders have slashed payouts to preserve capital, the share declines have left many with high dividend yields that may be unsustainable if earnings stay depressed.

Citigroup and KeyCorp have yields of 7.8 percent and 7.1 percent, despite deep dividend cuts.

At Bank of America

[ BAC   22.36     0.30   ( +1.36% )   ] Regions Financial [ RF   9.48     -0.12   ( -1.25% )   ] and SunTrust Banks [ STI   31.49     -0.53   ( -1.66% )   ] , which have not cut dividends, the yields are even higher -- 11.6 percent, 15.8 percent and 9.6 percent, respectively.

REGIONS FINANCIAL CORP NEW
RF

9.48   -0.12   -1.25%  
NYSE
Quote   |   Chart   |   News   |   Profile

 

SUNTRUST BANKS INC
STI

31.49   -0.53   -1.66%  
NYSE
Quote   |   Chart   |   News   |   Profile

 

Housing problems have weighed particularly on lenders exposed to California, Florida, Michigan and Ohio.

Many lenders have already announced charges or reserve builds likely to substantially reduce or wipe out profit, including Wachovia and the Midwest regional banks Fifth Third Bancorp , KeyCorp, Marshall & Ilsley [ MI   12.73     -0.13   ( -1.01% )   ] .

MARSHALL & ILSLEY CORP NEW
MI

12.73   -0.13   -1.01%  
NYSE
Quote   |   Chart   |   News   |   Profile

 

"There's going to be more bad news, more write-downs, more capital raises, more dividend cuts and more asset sales," said Lee Delaporte, director of research at Dreman Value Management in Jersey City, New Jersey.

Washington Mutual [ WM   5.25     -0.65   ( -11.02% )   ] , which is the largest savings and loan and raised $7 billion of capital last quarter, has said it expects mortgage losses of up to $19 billion by 2011.

But UBS and Lehman Brothers analysts said the number could grow. Lehman's Bruce Harting said the thrift's total credit losses over that period might reach $30 billion.

Losses Mount

Wachovia, meanwhile, might need to write down much of the $14 billion of goodwill it booked in 2006 when it bought Golden West Financial , a California option adjustable-rate mortgage specialist.

The bank now calls that purchase a mistake, and last week said it will stop offering option ARMs.

On Wednesday, Wachovia tapped Treasury Department Under Secretary Robert Steel, a key figure in the Bush administration response to the housing and credit crisis, as chief executive.

Meanwhile, at Citigroup, Chief Executive Vikram Pandit has had seven months to start a turnaround after more than $46 billion of losses and write-downs since the middle of 2007.

Pandit has pledged to shed $400 billion of assets and is expected to cut tens of thousands of jobs on top of more than 13,000 already announced by the largest U.S. bank.

But a third straight multibillion-dollar quarterly loss is expected, after Chief Financial Officer Gary Crittenden last month warned of possible substantial write-downs.

S&P's Plesser expects further write-downs in the second half, at least until home price declines slow.

"Higher levels of reserving are going to go on a lot longer," he said. "The uncertainty is whether charge-off levels really start to rise significantly quarter-over-quarter."


MI:  This call was made on 07/07/08 @ $12.45
Rating:   Negative   $12.45 (07/07/08)
Closed:   09/08/2008 @ $17.08 (-37.19% in 63 days)
Target:   $10.00 (-19.68%) in Three months


Comments (1)

Add Comment

Arrow_up
Arrow_down
thriftyinvestor   N/A     1 point   commented 105 days ago reply

The "smarter" banks will increase loan loss provisions while the sector is down. Why? Loan loss provisions are generally a guess, perhaps an educated guess in many instances, but hardly perfection. By increasing loss provisions when no one expects the sector to perform well will open the door to an earnings surprise down the road.
It never ceases to amaze me how "analysts" will pour over financial statements and take the numbers as gospel when the whole concept of tried and true accounting in every way acceptable is usurped by guesses which are taken as gospel. If a Company increases a provisional loss account to be conservative, all the analysts jump on board and say the Company is doing poorly, when in fact the Company may just be covering contingencies and positioning for the future.


Your Comment



ROCK-STAR INVESTORS
Rank Name Sharpe Ratio Avg Return Followers
1 21.10 +34.57% 370
2 18.14 +68.57% 207
3 17.66 +25.68% 53
4 13.47 +14.32% 61
5 12.13 +77.15% 34


POPULAR STOCKS
Symbol Company Name Sentiment

TODAY'S HEADLINES

TODAY'S TOP PICKS

 
Marshall & Ilsley Corp. (MI)
   SocialPicks Sentiment:   

   This Quarter's Sentiment:
All:
83.0%
Top:
100.0%




Latest Picks by joeyjoejoe
Symbol SP Sentiment Rating Return Since
CHK Positive -39.95% 09/20/08
RY Positive +11.57% 09/20/08
LEH Negative +100.00% 09/09/08
C Positive -78.08% 09/08/08
MER Positive -55.93% 09/08/08

View All >
   




IN THE PRESS
Press_forbes Press_washingtonpost Press_wsj Press_npr Press_techcrunch