An upswing to retest $122 resistance is probable. But in any event a down swing to $110 is expected. Therefore, this is a bearish quick trade of about $10 to $12 in expected profit, depending on where you short it.
It is likely that TNH will dip below $110 to about $106 or somewhat lower, which would make the profit as large as $16 on the short side. However, I'll be conservative and simply be satisfied with a major portion of the short-term down swing, and leave a little on the table.
I also consulted the forecast for TNH provided by ForecastS.com, but the extra interpretation and the target price are also the result of my own review of the price chart for TNH.
Note this is very short-term trading and I expect the target to be met within a week or less, even though I picked two-week time frame (the shortest selection available).
$122.64 (08/28/08)
