Well, we've just come out of a long and intense period of hurricane activity--29 straight days with a named storm in the Atlantic, with all four of these storms--Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike--causing heavy damage and inflicting high death tolls. The last time we had such an active period was in 2005, when we went 56 straight days from August 2 to September 26 with a named storm in the Atlantic. Katrina, Ophelia, and Rita all made landfall during that period. Fortunately, even the busiest hurricane seasons take a breather. We had a 4-day break in 2005 at the end of September. This year, we look to get a longer break of 7-10 days. Climatologically, the last half of September is one of the busiest periods in the Atlantic for hurricane activity. The peak of the season occurs on September 10, and the entire month of September is very active, with a high chance of dangerous major hurricanes (Figure 2). Sea Surface temperatures and oceanic heat content are at their peak right now, and have not begun to cool yet. Wind shear is near average or a little below average over most of the tropical Atlantic, and is forecast to remain so for the next two weeks. The peak portion of hurricane season lasts until mid-October, and I anticipate that we have at least one more major hurricane coming, and probably 4-5 more named storms. In the longer term, winds shear is predicted by NOAA's CFS model to remain below average over the Caribbean for all of October and November. The model also predicts that Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will range from 1-2°C above average over most of the hurricane main development region (from the coast of Africa to Central America between 10° and 20° latitude, including the Caribbean). SSTs have cooled dramatically in the Gulf of Mexico and Bahamas, thanks to the passage of Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike stirring up cold waters. These reduced SSTs will reduce the possibility of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. and Bahamas during the remainder of hurricane season. However, SSTs are about 1°C above average over the Caribbean and the region between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. That's a lot of fuel for potential hurricanes during the coming months. When will activity pick up again? There is an oscillation in the atmosphere I haven't talked about much before, called the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that will influence when hurricane season will get more active. The MJO is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator, and can act to boost hurricane activity when it propagates into the Atlantic. The MJO has a period of about 30-60 days, and is currently in its inactive phase over the Atlantic. However, according to the latest MJO discussion from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, we are expected to enter an active phase for the MJO over the western Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean beginning six days from now. As I mentioned above, the ECMWF and NOGAPS models are indicating the possibility of development in this region beginning about Monday of next week. So, enjoy the quiet interlude this week, because I expect by late next week there will be one new named storm in the Atlantic. The steering current pattern is not expected to change in the coming two weeks, and will favor steering hurricanes into the East Coast of the U.S. or Gulf of Mexico. By the beginning of October, I expect more recurving hurricane to occur, as the jet stream begins its annual Fall migration southward. This stock jumped almost 80% the first day gustav was upgraded to a hurricane. I also have found that the best time to buy is between 12 and 1pm. Good luck too all
$2.05 (09/16/08)
