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6 pts

Opinion on  Starbucks Corp (SBUX)     Sector: Services  >  Industry: Restaurants
This stock will be junk in a year

Sep 23, 2008 06:11 PM GMT
Cute596
M K
Return Risk
-10.92% LOW
Associate

With the upswing in inflation and the massive job losses that we are seeing, Starbucks is going to pay the price.  I've decided that I'm going to short them for the long run.  Just go to your local Starbucks and notice how few people are dropping in. 

Also, the upper management at Starbucks don't have a clue.  When they first came on the scene they were cool.  No people go because they remember when it was good.  With the rise of inflation, the incompetent management, and the general pullback on cash in the pocket of consumers Starbucks is going to take a big dump in its value.  Just wait until their next quarter results come out.  Trust me, it is going to be ugly.  Can you say, Taco Bell Management?


Update 10/16:

With increasing unemployment and rising inflation, not only did Starbucks overpay for their land leases, but they are also ran like a big pharma company.  This means more micro management and less productivity coupled with the public having less mad money to spend on a $5 cup of coffee.  It is going to be lights out for many locations soon and more to follow.  Still a wonderful time to sell this stinkbomb of a stock.


Update 10/22:

I would like to say officially that this stock is junk right now and still overpriced.  Think about how many times you read or hear people say, "I don't go to Starbucks anymore."  Our local Starbucks is down 40% and the pain of the economy is just beginning.  Christmas bought on credit cards this year isn't going to happen for many.  The credit card companies are already pulling back on credit in a big way.  The same knuckle heads that waste money at Starbucks on coffee they could make at home are the very same people that buy on credit and without their credit cards they will not be able to take a loan out for coffee.

I'm very optimistic that this company will have to change the business model to survive.


SBUX:  This call was made on 09/23/08 @ $15.0627
Rating:   Negative   $15.0627 (09/23/08)
Gain/Loss:   -40.21% in 437 days
Target:   $12.00 (-20.33%) in > one year


Comments (3)

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abates   N/A     1 point   commented 437 days ago reply

I dont know as much as coffee shouldnt be it does seem like starbucks is quite the staple for many people which should hold up revenues

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Cute596
M K   63%     2 points   commented 436 days ago reply

I understand why some would think that people that have their coffee at Starbucks everyday will not just stop going. I have seen this happen with Starbucks this summer in a very big way. Starbucks has gone into markets that they are not going to thrive in during times of higher unemployment and higher gas prices. The first thing to go for a middle class consumer is a luxury that they can produce at home and carry with them. If money is tight the spouse isn't going to be too happy with the other's $5 a day or more coffee purchases. This is a significant portion of the Starbucks business. So many Starbucks will continue to be packed in many stores, but then you will see the ones they do not close now seeing much lower volume. I'm sure this stock will fluctuate from 13-16 for awhile, but when the next round of store closing come around the next time gas prices go up then we will see this stock drop below $12 in the next 9 months. As for it not being a good idea to short stocks between 10-20, I would say yes, but these are not conventional times.

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Redemption
Greg   73%     1 point   commented 437 days ago reply

well stock price already reflects some worst case scenarios
still at this lvl i would not short it... i picked it long actually just to have some hedge from consumer related short position but in my opinion shorting stocks below ~10-20$ is not a good idea


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