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13 pts

Opinion on  Urban Outfitters Inc (URBN)     Sector: Services  >  Industry: Retail (Apparel)
urbn

Oct 27, 2008 02:47 PM GMT
Return Risk
+5.59% MID
Associate

Back in the 70's and 80's stocks p/e's came down to levels of 4-7's. So urbn with a pe of 7x this years earnings estimatesgives it a price of about 9.45. I also read in urbn's 10Q something about urbn having some auction rate security and cdo investment exposure such as student loan instruments and im not sure what else. I view this as another possible drag on the company. I also reiterate they are a retailer and regardless of how popular there brand is I think they will come under pressure. I also said be weary of institutions and analyst pumping the stock. Notice Jeffries Oppenheimer and some other analyst have been upgrading and pumping the stock while the price is comming under pressure and moving in the other direction. A conservative p/e of 10 puts the stock price @ 13.50. So i use these things as reasoning for my longer term outlook for a price targt of about 6. These are only my opinions. Make sure you do your own research before investing your hard earned money, as we have all seen how easy it can evaporate. 


Update 10/27:

i rated urbn a sell on 10/16/08 @ 21. per share. and i still hold that possition. ijust tried to add new analysis today and it closed out my pick and adjusted the stats of my trade and i cant put it back.


URBN:  This call was made on 10/27/08 @ $19.3
Rating:   Negative   $19.3 (10/27/08)
Closed:   10/27/2008 @ $19.28 (+0.10% in 3 minutes)


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bstage1 62% 10/28/2008



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