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9 pts

Opinion on  WellCare Health Plans Inc (WCG)     Sector: Financial  >  Industry: Insurance (Accident & Health)
WCG

Oct 31, 2008 02:41 PM GMT
11235
Return Risk
+0.89% MID
Sr. Associate

WCG -> Ah yes, a lil fraud here, some fraud there, restating a few years of earnings... okay, no biggie.  This company is trading like half our population isn't retiring over the next few years.  Trading with high levels of cash-to-debt (assuming their accounting only affected earnings, and they didn't pretend they had extra stacks of Benjamins lying around patient care units).  If you're looking for an angle to play on a socialist administration with Medicare and Medicaid, this is it. 

The company trades at a discount since we are still waiting for 2007 reports.  According to WSJ, the restatement will reduce net income from 2004 through mid-2007 by about 9%.  The retirees applying for Medicare and Medicaid will more than offset the discount on the price.  It's counter-intuitive to assume Democrat Obama would cancel out a social wellfare giant like Medicare... we'll have to leave that to the next Republican presidency.


WCG:  This call was made on 10/31/08 @ $22.46
Rating:   Positive   $22.46 (10/31/08)
Closed:   05/16/2009 @ $16.53 (-26.40% in 196 days)
Target:   $32.00 (+42.48%) in > one year


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