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10 pts

Opinion on  Rambus Inc (RMBS)     Sector: Technology  >  Industry: Semiconductors
Rambus Wins Summary Judgement of Infringement

Nov 14, 2008 05:54 PM GMT
20105205_1_
Return Risk
+16.88% LOW
Analyst

70% of the DRAM industry that manufacture memory for PCs, PDAs and cellphones have been found to have infringed Rambus patents via Summary Judgement.  The companies include Samsung, Hynix, Micron and Nanya.  Back damages from 2000 forward are more than one billion $ even before possible trebling for willful infringement.  Rambus also has an anti-trust / price fixing lawsuit against the same companies.  All have already pled guilty to the DOJ for price fixing and have paid millions in fines.  Damages could be in the range of 2-10 billion dollars.  Forward earnings when the companies either voluntarily sign a license or are forced to sign via injunction would be roughly 5% of a 25 billion market just for DRAM memory alone.  Potential forward revenues would jump to 1.25 billion per year with 750 million falling to the bottom line.  The company would have an EPS of $7.50 per share.  At a P/E of 15 the stock would trade above $100. 


RMBS:  This call was made on 11/14/08 @ $7.74
Rating:   Positive   $7.74 (11/14/08)
Gain/Loss:   +112.27% in 359 days


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