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10 pts

Opinion on  HarleyDavidson Inc (HOG)     Sector: Consumer Cyclical  >  Industry: Recreational Products
Auto Makers Set to Receive Short-Term Rescue Loans

Dec 08, 2008 01:38 AM GMT
Mikerun
Return Risk
+1.04% LOW
Principal

Congress Set to Vote on Short-Term Rescue for Auto Makers



The accompanying table [click to enlarge] presents the ETF Innovators [ETFI] Global Personal Transportation Index, which includes 40 companies with market caps of at least $150M. Since I last updated the index last month, the total market cap of the 40 companies has declined by 22% and currently stands at just under $450B with Volkswagen (VLKAY) accounting for nearly one-fourth of that total thanks to an 85% stock price gain in the past year and market cap of $112B.

Meanwhile, Congressional leaders are preparing to vote this week on a short-term rescue package for the U.S. auto makers, including index components General Motors (GM) and Ford (F), with the likely source of cash coming from the previously approved $25B in subsidized loans to encourage the development of more fuel efficient vehicles. The rescue package will likely entail short-term loans intended to ensure the survival of the auto makers until the new administration takes office in late January.

The ETFI Global Transport Index declined by an average of 55% over the past year and 22% over the past month on an equal-weight basis compared to declines of about 40% in the past year for the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and Consumer Discretionary Sector SPDR (XLY). The index includes auto makers such as Toyota (TM) + Honda (HMC), recreational vehicle makers such as Polaris (PII) + Winnebago (WGO), truck makers such as Navistar (NAV) + Paccar (PCAR), and motorcycle makers such as Harley Davidson (HOG) + Yamaha (YAMHF).


HOG:  This call was made on 12/08/08 @ $17.32
Rating:   Negative   $17.32 (12/08/08)
Gain/Loss:   -48.56% in 335 days


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