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9 pts

Opinion on  CB Richard Ellis Group Inc (CBG)     Sector: Services  >  Industry: Real Estate Operations
It's all about Human Nature

Jan 04, 2009 05:24 PM GMT
Barbaro
Return Risk
+2.91% HIGH
Associate

Fundamental Analysis  

I know a thing or tow about gambling, gamblers, and the house. If you don't believe check my web link.

Let's talk about the crisis we are in. And it is very real.

  • The USA is collasping under it's debt.
  • We've lost the ability to drill, mine, and inovate out of our troubles.
  • Presidents and future presidents are trying to buy time by spending their way out of the problem through the use of the printing press.
  • The percentage of Americans heading for retirement will be at it's hghest.
  • The percentage of Americans availble to pay for Obama's spending plan will be at it's lowest.

We have a real problem.

The housing industry has collasp. If the problem is getting worse not better it is natural it assume that if you look beyond the horizon of housing and hit the next sector you should be spot on for the next colllasp.

Every anaylist wants to look smart. Every investor wants to look smart. Pounding the REITs into the round is only natural. My ranking is in the top 25%. Sad considering I'm squeeking by. But my trades here do repersent my trades in real life. I bought the real money paying REITs over a year ago. Shorted the nonsense to hedge them. covered my shorts last summer. Let the real money from the REITs build up in my account. And now it is time to buy more REAL investments.

There are other small issues not discussed with the REITs

  • As the dollar collaspes USA commerical real estate back by real incoming money becomes extrodenaly cheap for foreing money looking for a safe have,
  • USA commercial properties including aprtments and offices have a proven real record that expands good times and bad times.
  • Oil and other commoditties have proven to be risky
  • Currencies have been extreamly volitable

The stampeding heard of buffalo is of no concern to me. Human nature is always wrong.

I'm buying more REITs and so should you.


CBG:  This call was made on 01/04/09 @ $4.43
Rating:   Positive   $4.43 (01/04/09)
Gain/Loss:   +146.05% in 311 days
Target:   $12.00 (+170.88%) in > one year


Comments (1)

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utopius   83%     1 point   commented 168 days ago reply

Just wondering if it is a bit too early for commercial REITs; the commercial RE industry has held up relatively well compared to residential so far. 2009 might prove to be the year commercial catches up to resi woes. Subprime RE might be a lot closer to a bottom than commercial, that's all I'm saying.


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