I expect the GDX ETF to perform very well in 2009, as it behaves almost as a call option on the price of gold. I believe the debasement of the US dollar will lead to higher price of gold, as well as the decline in gold production. Currently many gold producers are traded extrmely low. The gold spot per GDX ratio is around 23 right now. I believe it will drop significantly. Within 2009, I believe the ETF will trade above 120$, unless the Obama administration will turn to gold confiscation or something whacky like that (ok, it's not that whacky considering it happened in 1934).
If gold will stay under 900$ I expect the ETF to decline more.
$30.63 (01/18/09)
