Obama would probably like to get rid of the FRE and FNM system some day. So as the economy improves, my guess is the outlook for things like AIG, FNM, FRE worsen. The American people will want their money back at some point, especially if Wall Street is dumb enough to give it to them (unlikely). This stock can go up in the face many times, since it's not really based on fundamentals (housing prices continue to come down at mid and high end, regardless of those reporting median price stabilization-- which is due to "mix shift" of many houses at low end finally liquidating). But over the long run, it's too risky to own due to potential to go to zero. It's a speculation, not an investment.