Upcoming fire sale by the Fed. This is the contrarian jackpot ladies and gentlemen. Take a look at the chart for Friday March 19, 2010 (60m trade before close). I think this is the way the fed may unload shares, piece by piece, although on a larger scale, since 60 million shares per day would take over 120 trading days. And if ONE batch dropped the price by 1.6% what would happen when the Fed puts out the for sale sign. A nightmare of epic proportions at first glance. Since this is evident to a 3rd grader, why would anyone risk money in this stock? Taking into account the general uncertainty, as well as the overwhelming negative sentiment and bad press around this bank, and you have yourself the perfect ingredients for a cunning options play. Yes, I agree that the balance sheet of Citi is the stuff of accountants' nightmares, and yes, we have a bank being run by uncle Sam who's management skills, especially when put to work in the private sector, leave much to be desired. This is plainly obvious - the bank is in bad shape. In fact, I HATE this bank in its current iteration. It's like a Wall St. zombie that's neither dead nor alive. HOWEVER, everybody, and I mean everybody hates this stock. One word, SENTIMENT. Fear is priced in, if you wait for the Fed to act and the situation to become clearer, you will have missed the easy money. Citi is underowned by the institutions, who have various covenants in their charters preventing them from owning any stock that's worth less than a certain value per share, or are just plain cautious. Considering the fact that this bank was majority instituionally owned (~65%) before the meltdown. These same institutions WILL devour the Fed's share offering, and not only that, they will ask for more down the road. The only major bank left that has global diversification and reach, being given free money courtesy of the current monetary stimulus,which will continue to a lesser degree into the near and mid term. And we have what amounts to a complete detoxification, and surplus profits to boot. I wouldn't even be surprised if the Fed cuts backroom deals with some of these big players and avoids the market entirely for a portion of its stake. Then the mania will start and happy days will be here again, until the next meltdown. I will cut this short - it will be at 11-15 dollars in under 2 years. Collect any risk or semi-risk capital you have and go for the options.
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