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6 pts

Opinion on  True Religion Apparel Inc (TRLG)     Sector: Consumer Cyclical  >  Industry: Apparel/Accessories
Reiterate previous analysis: BUY

Jan 09, 2007 07:37 PM GMT
Duckonhead
Return Risk
+2.71% HIGH
Associate

Recent News   Fundamental Analysis   Technical Analysis   Favorable/Unfavorable Valuation  

I don't know why it entered the rating as a sell when I selected buy, and I can't edit it now, so just know that this is a BUY recommendation.


Based on today's movement, I'd like to reiterate my previous analysis, and add that TRLG is looking very bullish right now. Previously it was caught in a sideways trend because of its resistance at 16.00, no news, weak Q4 guidance, and weak technicals.



However, today TRLG broke its 50 day SMA on double its average daily volume, its MACD broke its 0 level in an upward trend, and it broke its two month resistance of 16.00.



I reiterate my target price of 22.50 by May, and hopefully 20.00 by March.



Risk is moderate as this is a volatile stock (its beta was something like 70 last time I checked), so keep your stop losses ready.



In recent news, TRLG has announced the opening of a store in Houston, in addition to stores it has already launched in Los Angeles and New York.



I expect TRLG to beat current analyst estimates of .22 by a wide margin (how wide though, is anyone's guess, as TRLG has been known to surprise by a wide spread).


Trlg


TRLG:  This call was made on 01/09/07 @ $16.85
Rating:   Negative   $16.85 (01/09/07)
Closed:   01/09/2007 @ $16.82 (+0.18% in 3 minutes)
Target:   $20.00 (+18.69%) in Three months
Allocation:   0.6% of portfolio


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James previously rated TRLG
Positive +0.48% Bullish on TRLG ...
01/09/2007
0
Positive +9.42% Now is a good time
12/05/2006
9
Positive +0.00% Now is a good time
12/05/2006
6





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