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7 pts

Opinion on  Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY)     Sector: Transportation  >  Industry: Airline
Management is a buyer at 20% higher than today's price

Nov 29, 2007 05:37 PM GMT
Anything
Return Risk
+8.83% HIGH
Sr. Associate

The company has bought back shares at 5.50 Euros, or equivalent in ADR to $46.50 (assuming London shares continue to trade at 13% discount to United States ADRs), and has bought back shares all year at an average price of $42.  So either management can't see the forest for the trees, or you can currently buy the stock for 20% discount to what the CEO pays.

Market is worried about high oil price at $100 per barrell, but company has already weathered rising oil prices since 2002, continues to grow earnings and revenues greater than 20% per annum, and maintains its > 20% operating margin.  Furthermore, Ryanair's average ticket price is about 44 euros with oil at $65 per barrel.  If $100 is the price paid next year for oil, Ryan will need to raise the average ticket price by 5 euros next year.  That's chicken scratch.  I don't think a 5 euro increase on ticket prices will cause a massive destruction of load factor for the airline. 

I like this stock more as it goes down.

 

 

 


RYAAY:  This call was made on 11/29/07 @ $39.9
Rating:   Positive   $39.9 (11/29/07)
Gain/Loss:   -32.43% in 712 days
Target:   $120.00 (+200.75%) in > one year


+ Referring to this analysis:


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Who voted on this idea?
The-stranger
Vogell 36% 11/30/2007


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utopius previously rated RYAAY
Positive -14.36% Best run airline on planet earth
10/11/2007
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