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7 pts

Opinion on  Jamba Inc. (JMBA)
Jmba highly volatile stock with short time frame cup and handle forming

Dec 12, 2007 03:57 PM GMT
Return Risk
-38.25% MID
Analyst

Jmba is a buy.
When it hit 3's I loaded up and brought my average price down to about 4 dollars (I started buying at 5 before the shorts). I feel so strongly about this company, management, growth potential it makes up roughly 20% of my portfolio.

Several things have happened recently which in my opinion have brought it up to a reasonable price.
-Jamba Inc. announces deal with Nestle to bring 2 ready to drink products to store shelves using the Jamba brand and the Nestle manufacturing/distribution network. This is only in 8 western states where the Jamba brand is already a well known, if not the best known, smoothie brand. Small news but basically free money aside from small R&D for the drinks.
- Jamba Inc. announces 2 days later a new board member (Lesley Howe) is named, he currently serves on P.F. Changes board of directors and some others. He will serve as an independent director for the audit committee.
-Days later (Announced 12/10/07) insider buying occurs as the stock starts to rally. ( http://ir.jambajuice.com/sec.cfm )  Even the new director Lesley Howe buys some stock (82g's worth at the time)

A cup and handle stock chart pattern appears to have formed, and while I'm not really a fan of individual stock charts and don't use them solely to predict an equities future, it is another signal to a rally.

At 12:30 P.M. EST. They have a conference probably nothing big will be announced, however it could be a catalyst to send the stock higher. And honestly all of the shorts probably haven't covered yet (9 million shares short, slightly over 20% float) If there hasn't been a short squeeze yet that caused the rally, it's almost guaranteed.

I do own Jmba and do expect it to rise maybe not to 10 but close, it's been close before and the fundamentals haven't changed except for a smaller new store growth than previously announced because of the slow down of consumer spending, this is only a good thing to avoid over extension of themselves, in my opinion. The only factors against them would be rising fruit costs. I'm not sure that's too much of a problem. I am long jmba but believe short term gains can be made also since the stock has been extremely volatile. There is alot of risk attempting to day/swing trade this stock because of how the market reacted to a 25 point discount rate cut yesterday when everyone was expecting a 50 point discount rate cut combined with the extreme volatility (30% in one day, each down or up, within the last month).


JMBA:  This call was made on 12/12/07 @ $4.88
Rating:   Positive   $4.88 (12/12/07)
Gain/Loss:   -65.98% in 699 days
Target:   $10.00 (+104.92%) in > one year


+ Referring to this analysis:


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Who voted on this idea?
Condor
Doodahdoodoo 41% 12/12/2007


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