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7 pts

Opinion on  Lumera Corp. (LMRA)     Sector: Basic Materials  >  Industry: Fabricated Plastic & Rubber
BUY

Mar 12, 2008 01:32 PM GMT
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Return Risk
+0.74% HIGH
Sr. Associate

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Let the bashers keep bashing guys.. This was one of LMRA better conference calls. Although much work needs to be done I feel they are on the right path and are actually closer to getting some real orders than some think. Some of the positives are.
1) 6.0M in govie contracts forthcoming (2x last yr rev)
2) LMT relationship to deepen in 2008 (im expecting more orders as the year progresses)
3) 4 system integrater evaluating our 40gbps (2 of them only looking into lmra solution)
4) Telecordia only 3-4 months away.. (this will be the major news that will propell this stock)
5) DARPA says LMRA is only vendor meeting key milestones.. expect phase III soon
6) Kx5 to be released in MAY at PEGS (on target) with 2nd early access due in q2.. exp pricing 375k each
7) Enough cash to get us through 2008.. expected burn to be about equal to 2007.

Negatives...

1) 100gbps still not delivered due to packaging (vendor)
2) MMW about a year away.. (however LMRA will be supplying the materials and modulators for the units)
3) Still working on developing suppliers/vendors for the packaging connector ects..
4) CEO still not found


Currently you have a company that trades at a 40MM market cap (with 14.6M in cash) that is getting closer and closer to having its products accepted into multi billion $$ markets. IMHO we should be trading at around 100M market cap as we approach telecordia certification (thats when some real orders start to become reality). IMHO the stock is done going down for now.. may still base here above $2 (due to the shitty mkt we are in)and firm toward the june/july timeframe. Right now there is zero risk premium being given in this market.


Update 03/27:

LMRA:  This call was made on 03/12/08 @ $2.03
Rating:   Positive   $2.03 (03/12/08)
Gain/Loss:   -84.24% in 625 days
Target:   $5.00 (+146.31%) in Six months
Allocation:   95.0% of portfolio


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