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6 pts

Opinion on  ConAgra Foods Inc. (CAG)     Sector: Consumer/Non-Cyclical  >  Industry: Food Processing
It's all About Human Nature

Mar 27, 2008 12:38 PM GMT
Barbaro
Return Risk
+2.91% HIGH
Associate

Technical Analysis  

Today CAG is about to explode upwards because of higher than expected profits and revenues.

ConAgra is a food packaging company. All the anals out there have been saying these people are getting squeeze on both ends - Tighter consumer bugets and higher raw commodity prices. It's not human nature to admit you were wrong. Actually I don't think the Anals were wrong, so why on earth should they admit they were wrong?

A sizable portion of CAG money comes from playing the commodity market. Normally they lose on these playss, but it hedges there mainline business and helps insure their profits. They are selling their commodity trading branch. My hunch is to get the best price on this sale they went balls out on the trading and showed the world what their commodity traders can do.

So if  the stock explodes on the open by 10%. The fundementals say their future should be squeeze. And their commodiity branch will nolonger play a role with the future stability of the company. What should you do on the hype?

Next week the analyst are going to stand their ground and straighten the masses out.....

Short term short


CAG:  This call was made on 03/27/08 @ $23.93
Rating:   Negative   $23.93 (03/27/08)
Closed:   09/18/2008 @ $19.4 (+18.93% in 175 days)
Target:   $20.00 (-16.42%) in One month


Comments (2)

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Barbaro
dogcrap   69%     1 point   commented 593 days ago reply

socialpicks no longer properly uses the opening stock price for picks made prior to the opening bell. the start of the short should be $23.95

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Barbaro
dogcrap   69%     1 point   commented 593 days ago reply

I see they are back up to speed. For a while there it look like properly playing against a sharp premarket move was going to unfairly beat my average down.


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