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6 pts

Opinion on  General Dynamics Corp (GD)     Sector: Capital Goods  >  Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Defence major

Apr 18, 2008 02:11 PM GMT
India_flag_background
Return Risk
-4.44% MID
Sr. Associate

Sixth largest defence contractor in the world
Good management
Good reputation
Focused on land and sea based weapons which would be useful going forward since the majority of the wars will be low intensity conflicts in remote parts of the world where people have to be on the ground
Commodity bull markets are historically associated with wars as people get greedy for hard assets eg Nobody would have given a damn about Saddam if Iraq didn't have oil.
Dollar weakness will help exports
The current administration still has a lot of time left to award contracts
McCain could win
The earnings report can have positive surprises

Some GD products
1.stryker armored personal carrier
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stryker_%28vehicle%29

2.Abrams Main Battle Tank
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M1_Abrams

 Enjoy the pics :)

Downside
A Democrat administration would be tough on defence contractors and they won't be able to get away with cost overruns and lax ovesight as they can now.Although sales might remain robust margins will be squeezed.So I will sell before the election and get back in after clarity emerges.But long term it is a buy because there will be a need to build up equipment lost or damaged in Iraq,Afghanistan etc and nobody can do anything  about it.It is be noted that I don't like either the Democrats or the Republicans so this is a purely investment oriented opinion.I don't care about the politics.


GD:  This call was made on 04/18/08 @ $87.18
Rating:   Positive   $87.18 (04/18/08)
Gain/Loss:   -21.85% in 588 days
Allocation:   0.6% of portfolio


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