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Picks Performance:
Outperforms
64%
of community
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All-time Return
-10.02%
(in over 2 years)
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Risk (SD)
Aggressive
0.00%
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Sharpe Ratio
-8.01
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Followers
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Winning Picks
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Total Views
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Big Ben's Blog Posts
Last Post
05/16/08
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Due to a future commitment, I will no longer be able to post articles on this blog. I would like to thank everybody for their support.Best of luck,Ben<!---->','subtitle>',$line);
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RIO
Adding Nucor (NUE) & Selling Agriculture Strength
04/16/08
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I made a few moves today. Towards the close I sold calls against some agricultural positions. Shorter term (next couple of trading sessions) I expect the agricultural stocks to come in a bit. I have been bullish on Mosaic for a 170% gain since October 3rd and have liked Terra (TRA) & Terra Nitrog...
PBR
DO
Energy, Ags, & Infrastucture
04/14/08
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The only three areas that continue to work are energy, ags, and infrastructure. I see no compelling reason to own a financial. My current exposure to the financial sector is through Banco Bradesco (BBD). Wachovia's earnings miss today confirms that no bank is safe. Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) is virtua...
Stocks Bounce
03/12/08
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Today's decision by the Fed to allow certain types of debt, including mortgages, to be used as collateral in exchange for additional borrowing from the Fed helped stocks rally. The move is seen as stabilizing the mortgage markets. This may be an opportunity to get out of some of the financials on the...
GDP
MOS
Are Commodities Recession Proof?
03/03/08
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Gold, oil, most of the other precious metals, and the agricultural commodities continue to make new highs. Is this a bubble? I wish I knew the answer to that. I continue to remain bullish on commodities. There are two main scenarios for why commodities will trade higher regardless of how the U.S. ec...
ICE
NMX
ICE Attractive On Pullback
02/05/08
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The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has now pulled back to a more attractive level. ICE now trades at 19X forward earnings. I continue to like the exchange sector. As more volume moves electronic, volumes and margins increase for ICE. Futures clearing is a great business to be in. With the CME's $11B...
Wait & See
01/24/08
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The recent market volatility suggests more of a wait and see approach. Timing the market is difficult and near impossible. I would like to see how the market trades the next couple of days before going long or short.<?php
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MOS
MON
Agriculture Continues to Deliver
01/10/08
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The Mosaic Company (MOS) reported a terrific quarter today. Besides handily beating analyst earnings estimates, Mosaic prepaid $450M of debt with cash flow from operations. Mosaic has seen quarter over quarter price increases in its fertilizer products.Last week, Monsanto (MON) reported a tripling o...
MOS
Agriculture & Infrastructure Continue to Work
12/21/07
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Despite the bearish economic sentiment in the overall market, there are several sectors that continue to outperform. Every individual investor should have some exposure to agriculture and infrastructure. Both sectors are in the middle innings of their individual "bull markets" and are under-owned b...
M
JCP
Retail Sales
12/06/07
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Today's higher than expected retail sales numbers should be interpreted cautiously. Overall, the numbers were mixed and many companies reporting positive November sales lowered their December forecast.The percent increases in sales were impressive at many department stores driven by successful "Black...
KBR
FWLT
Engineering & Construction
11/21/07
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One space that has interested me is the engineering and construction (E&C) industry. There are several major players in the E&C industry (KBR, FWLT, SGR, FLR, JEC, NRG, & MDR). On pure valuation basis, McDermott (MDR) looks like the most attractive company to own. McDermott has an $8B ba...
COH
MOS
Credit Situation Worsening
11/08/07
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I felt that most of the credit crisis was behind us after the first interest rate cut in September. Today's market reaction paints a darker picture about the credit crisis. It's important to remember that residential mortgage rates are tied to the 10-year yield, not the Fed Funds rate. Cutting intere...
Use Weakness to Buy Quality
10/21/07
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The recent market weakness has provided a great opportunity to initiate positions in high quality companies. Global agricultural demand will not be affected by problems in the credit markets. Demand for wheat, soybeans, corn, and rice will continue to remain strong. The best stock to own is Mosaic (M...
Invest Globally
10/02/07
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The Fed's policy of fighting the subprime crisis with lower interest rates means higher returns for international stocks held by US investors. Lower interest rates in the US is keeping the US dollar index at historic lows. Therefore it will take more dollars to buy foreign stocks.The conservative app...
China + Crude Oil = Momentum
09/12/07
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If you have been following the energy markets lately you would have noticed that Light Sweet Crude hit an all time intraday high of $80.17 in electronic trading today. Whether the U.S. economic slowdown will put downward pressure on oil remains to be seen. I remain bullish on oil and crude oil tradin...
Selling This Strength
09/01/07
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I have used the recent market strength to exit several positions. I closed my positions in Silver Wheaton (SLW) and Arcelor Mittal (MT). I still remain bullish on metals but I would like to see more attractive valuations before committing money to the sector. I also closed my position in Terra Nitrog...
BofA Boosts Banks
08/23/07
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Bank America's decision to make a $2B equity investment in Countrywide (CFC) shows that there is value in the banking sector. I still remain cautious about the sector as a whole and would be hesitant to put money to work in the financials. I continue to hold shares of subprime lender Accredited Home ...
An Accredited Gamble
08/08/07
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Today I got long Accredited Home Lenders (LEND). Accredited is a subprime lender that actually has a bid from Lone Star V, a private equity fund. Lone Star bid $400M or $15.10 for Accredited on June 4th. LEND now trades under $7 a share. Technically there is 115% upside from the current price. The f...
So Much For American Home Mortgage (AHM)
08/02/07
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In March I believed that American Home Mortgage (AHM) was safe from the subprime fallout and I wrote positively about the stock on March 18th. I wouldn't touch the stock now. I did say to realize profits on March 21st. I admit I was wrong about AHM and in today's current environment I wouldn't touch...
Alternative Energy
07/17/07
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I have always preferred to own oil and gas companies over stocks related to alternative energy. Mostly because alternative energy companies are highly dependent on the federal government for subsides to run a profitable business. Now many solar companies are publicly traded and less dependent on the...
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