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 larytet     Graphic_subscribe   

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    Community Rank: Sr. Analyst (295 pts)  |  Member since 04/02/2008
Picks Performance:
Outperforms
40%
of community

All-time Return
-1.01%
(in 1 year)
Risk (SD)
Moderate
0.00%
Sharpe Ratio
-20.05
Followers
0
Winning Picks
64 of 150
Total Views
28526


 Last Activity: Added SSO to bullish list on 11/03/08 

Current Stock List:
Symbol SP Sentiment Rating Return Since
SSO Positive +8.99% 11/03/08
ZNT Positive -8.31% 10/09/08
AUO Positive +1.42% 10/09/08
DSWL N/A Positive +78.43% 10/09/08
ESEA Positive -31.95% 10/09/08
PFE Positive +0.43% 10/09/08
YUM Negative -25.18% 10/07/08
QID Negative +69.12% 10/07/08
TWM Negative +69.96% 10/07/08
SPLS Negative -17.98% 10/07/08




Opinion & Analysis
Graphic_rating_buy value financial play   about ZNT   10/09/08
i do not know what shorts (10 trading days to cover that 7% of float) think about these company, but if their business conservative as it looks - the company is a gem

Graphic_rating_buy more of AUO   about AUO   10/09/08
averaging down

Graphic_rating_buy weekly RSI in SPX at 2002 levels   about SSO   10/07/08
monthly RSI at these levels was only twice in the recent history - 1974 and 2002 i think that any deep from here can be bought. short term down side risk is limited by 960, upside is return to 1

Graphic_rating_sell TA   about YUM   10/07/08
broken topping formation, high leverage, low current ratio

Graphic_rating_buy bottoming   about SSO   10/07/08
definitely not The Bottom, but fear is everywhere. The toughest thing is buying right now. I do not think that SP500 is going lower than 960 in the near term.



Discussions

Re: weekly RSI in SPX at 2002 levels 10/09/08
...and put writers are going to be squeezed. there is very serious blood . i think that in Oct at least expires equivalent of 150mil shares of QQQQ or cool 3bil. i bet a hedge fund or two had positions not covered

Re: weekly RSI in SPX at 2002 levels 10/09/08
put/call ratio in QQQ is staggering 337/41 - there are 337K open put position at-money alone or 30 mil shares which is approximately 10% of daily trading volume and only 6 days to expiration. $VXO crossed 70 and $VIX 60 i think both at all times highs

Re: weekly RSI in SPX at 2002 levels 10/09/08
and another thing - last two days we witnessed sell off both in bonds and stocks. no diversified strategy was safe.

Re: weekly RSI in SPX at 2002 levels 10/09/08
all indicators are bearish and out of the charts, starting with $VXO and ending with only 5 SP500 stocks above 50MA. but the most outstanding is put/call ratios in QQQQ/SPY/DIA. For in-money we see ration 1:10 and higher. For example right now 70K and 10K of open put and call positions in SPY and $96 (SPY=96.34) put which expires in 4 trading days from now costs $3.6. I mean $3.6 !!! this put p...

Re: resistance should be somewhere close 08/27/08
Put/call ratio is slipping to the dangerous for the bulls levels, VIX Is under 20 and we can see it at 16 in one or two days even without significant changes in the indexes. The volume is not existent. It simply does not look like a bull market in the short term. Funds buy oversold sectors (see airlines, FNM, FRE for example) just to sell everything after 20-30% run up. This is traders market.

Re: Bullish on TIRTZ ... 08/20/08
thanks to Walter for the tip

Re: Adding some yield 08/07/08
Technical picture looks dangerous. Short term (1-2 weeks) is oversold. In the medium term can be a double top. retest of $18 is not out of question and if breaks the next obvious support is way down at $16. fundamentals are good though and the stock is very tempting. i will try to enter at 18 thanks for the tip

Re: Slow accumulation 06/02/08
"outlook is subject to change" costs 7% and break of major support line. stock pays 9% dividend and the bank trades at 5 P/E. what gives ? i think i will average down if stocks continues to slide. meanwhile downgrade to hold

Re: Slow accumulation 06/02/08
clean break of support at $50, this one is a looser

Re: Bullish on UNP ... 06/02/08
...and btw may be transportation sector is heading into the wall - too fast too much. will end as usual in tears




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Investment Style:
Moderate  [?]

Avg exp holding time:
172.19 days

Age:
30's



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