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Are Commodities Recession Proof?

 Mar 03, 2008 05:27 AM UTC
Return Risk
-8.59% HIGH
Tracked Blogger
Symbol Sentiment Start Return Closed
GDP n/a
MOS n/a
RIO n/a
SPWRA n/a
DB n/a
ETF n/a
CHK n/a
TRA n/a

Graphic_arrow1 Via Big Ben's Investing Blog:  

Gold, oil, most of the other precious metals, and the agricultural commodities continue to make new highs. Is this a bubble? I wish I knew the answer to that. I continue to remain bullish on commodities. There are two main scenarios for why commodities will trade higher regardless of how the U.S. economy proceeds.

Scenario #1
U.S. Economy enters a recession. The Fed continues to cut rates, further eroding the value of the US dollar. This means it takes fewer Euro's, Yen, and just about every other major currency to purchase more commodities that are denominated in dollars. This will lead to an increase in demand for commodities.

Scenario#2
U.S. Economy has "bottomed," interest rates remain constant or move higher, and the U.S. GDP picks up. An increase in GDP will further increase demand for commodities. The dollar should strengthen, but demand will remain robust due to economic growth.

Stocks to Own

  • Natural Gas: Chesapeake Energy (CHK)
  • Contract Drilling: Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO)
  • Crude Oil: Petrobras (PBR)
  • Fertilizer: Mosaic (MOS) & Terra Industries (TRA)
  • Metals: Vale (RIO) & Rio Tinto Alcan (RTP)
  • Uranium: Cameco (CCJ)
  • Solar: Sunpower (SPWR) & MEMC (WFR)
Pure Commodity ETF's
  • Powershares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA)
  • iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
  • streetTRACKS Gold (GLD)
  • US Oil Fund (USO)
  • US Natural Gas Fund (UNG)
Note: I have positions in CHK, MOS, TRA, & RIO
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