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For those that wondered what my stance on Lennar is after raising cash through property sales and tax refunds, here is my update to the Voodoo analysis.
The worst housing slump in recent history has taken its toll on US home builders, with most of them reporting consecutive quarterly losses in the second half of 2007. Lennar, in particular, reported negative earnings for the fifth consecutive quarter in 4Q2007, witnessing a negative EPS of $6.08 compared with a negative $1.23 in 4Q2006. Its large inventory write-down of approximately $2.4 bn in 2007 along with losses on land sale deal with Morgan Stanley Real Estate significantly impacted its operating performance in 2007. As the US housing woes deepen amid deteriorating US and global economic fundamentals and the economy edges definitively closer to the hard landing that we I have been anticipating I believe that declining consumer confidence and buying power will continue to impact housing demand. This should further depress Lennar's new home prices in 2008 and 2009 and significantly impact its operating and net profit margins..
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