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3/31 - "We are lowering our projections but continue to rate SGP Neutral given the step-down in the stock. "We lowered our 2008E EPS from $1.46 to $1.33 and our 2009E EPS from $1.61 to $1.36. We reduced U.S. JV sales (Vytorin+Zetia) as follows: 2008E from $3.5B (-10% YOY) to $3.0B (-24% YOY) and 2009E from $3.5B (0% YOY) to $2.8B (- 5% YOY). We await prescription trend data and may revise these assumptions as 2008 evolves. We reduced ex-U.S. JV sales (Vytorin+Zetia) as follows: 2008E from $1.6B (24% YOY) to $1.5B (12% YOY) and 2009E from $1.8B (10% YOY) to $1.5B (0% YOY). We expect less impact ex-U.S. from moderating demand for Vytorin/Zetia due to foreign exchange benefit and lack of penetration of cholesterol lowering drugs." |
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