Cramer on BloggingStocks: Retail's worrisome rally - Jim Cramer

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Cramer on BloggingStocks: Retail's worrisome rally
Apr 03, 2008 09:10 AM UTC

Jim Cramer

Return	Risk
+1.30%	MID

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Symbol	Sentiment	Start	Return	Closed
JWN		04/03/08	-2.11%	--
TGT		04/03/08	-32.24%	01/09/09
BBY		04/03/08	+4.86%	08/14/08
WMT		04/03/08	+6.64%	05/12/08

Via BloggingStocks:

Filed under: Wal-Mart (WMT), Market matters, Target Corp. (TGT), Best Buy (BBY), Nordstrom, Inc (JWN), Stocks to Buy, Stocks to Sell, Cramer on BloggingStocks, Recession

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the downside for these stocks is smaller, but they won't be his first line of defense.

You should not get oil ramping and retail ramping. You can't have early-cycle running and commodities running, even though I know that commodities are a "rest of world" story.

I believe that Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) (Cramer's Take) can run, but the others? I have to say that if oil isn't going down, these stocks will have a failed rally and retreat again, but not below their recent lows.

The early-cycle rally of the higher-end retailers is the most problematic, because it is the least backed by the estimates. Look how excited everyone was about Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) and now look how poorly it is trading. Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) (Cramer's Take) and Target (NYSE: TGT) (Cramer's Take) should get hammered again for a couple of points, because the numbers for March are going to be awful.

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