Three Short Ideas: Standard Pacific, Under Armour and Trump Entertainment - Dan Weiss

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Three Short Ideas: Standard Pacific, Under Armour and Trump Entertainment
May 08, 2008 03:24 AM UTC

Dan Weiss

Return	Risk
-2.27%	MID

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Symbol	Sentiment	Start	Return	Closed
TRMP		05/08/08	+85.66%	--
SPF		05/08/08	-3.45%	--
UA		05/08/08	+19.01%	--

Via Short Stock Ideas from Seeking Alpha:

Last week, I posted on three stocks that look interesting for potential purchase Mitcham Industries, Key Technology and New Frontier Media, that I am
currently conducting due diligence on. Although, I do not actively short in the portfolio,
here are three stocks for which I consider there to be significant downside
risk to their stock price over the next several months.

1)
Standard Pacific (SPF)$5.13: I continue to be of the opinion that this
will be the first large homebuilder (several smaller ones have already
done so) to potentially be forced into reorganization due to issues
with covenants and the company's high degree of leverage. The company
operates in many of the most difficult housing markets (Florida,
Arizona, California, Nevada, Colorado) in the country.

2)
Under Armour: (UA)$34.57: The company recently reiterated annual sales
growth, however, my own models show a good chance that they will not be
able to meet their expectations as sales growth continues to
slow. I personally like the products, but at current valuations the
stock is still a bit expensive, especially considering the fairly high
odds that the company will not be able to meet current growth
expectations over the next 1-2 years.

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