TRY: Triarc May be a Wallflower, But It’s No Shrinking Violet

I have begun a new series of posts at RealMoney focusing on Wallflowers - stocks that have limited analyst coverage. By identifying stocks that fall below Wall Street’s radar screen the hope is to find some undervalued gems.

It may seem odd, on the heels of its deal to acquire Wendy’s (WEN) , to classify Triarc (TRY) as a wallflower. Certainly it has not shied away from publicity of late. However, in market terms, a wallflower is an under-covered stock, and with just one analyst currently covering the name, Triarc certainly qualifies.

I think the acquisition will do several things for Triarc:

• Raise its profile


• Bring some of the 8 analysts covering Wendy’s on board


• Reduce the overhang of Nelson Peltz’s virtual controlling interest


• Simplify the ownership structure


• Improve the capital structure

As to valuation, with the restructuring and other deal-related anomalies, estimating earnings is likely to be something of a guessing game. Instead, I’d look to a more stable valuation metric such as price-to-book-value. According to Zacks Research Wizard, the average price-to-book in the restaurant industry is 4.0 times. I don’t believe the new Wendy’s will deserve the industry average, but it could merit 3 times book value. At that valuation, the shares could rise nearly 19% to $8.11. And that’s not bad for a start.

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.

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