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Cramer on BloggingStocks: In retail, lower prices beckon

 May 12, 2008 08:40 AM UTC
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Filed under: Wal-Mart (WMT), Market matters, FedEx Corp (FDX), Oil, Stocks to Sell, Cramer on BloggingStocks

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says FedEx exposed three market fictions with its news on Friday.

Sometimes you have to wonder why some stocks just don't stay down after bad news.

Take FedEx (NYSE: FDX) (Cramer's Take). Earlier this year, the stock shed about 10% of its value when it forecast worse-than-expected earnings, citing lower volumes and higher fuel costs. It then proceeded to rally 25% from that dismal forecast even as oil went up dramatically and business in the U.S., particularly retail business, got softer and softer!

Now we get pretty much a simple extension of what the company said last near the end of March, and people are acting surprised and furiously dumping the stock.

FedEx cuts to a couple abiding fictions in this market. The first is that all valuations are cheap, so it is OK to buy them. FedEx has long-term growth of 10% and sells at 14 times earnings, but I question both the growth and the multiple as being too high in a world where energy just won't quit. But that brings us to the second fiction: People have been buying this stock with the idea that oil just has to level off somewhere. Considering it didn't, how could anyone be surprised at this news? And the third fiction? The turn in the economy is right around the corner.

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