As Dick's Sporting Goods Falls 17%, Expect More of the Same from Retail

A few retailers are doing ok on "not as bad as terrible expectations,"
but as I keep repeating, anything levered to the US consumer is asbestos
in your portfolio.<!----> This sector has rebounded smartly on the "2nd half
recovery" thesis along with the "rebate checks will save everything"
thesis (even though most of that rebate check is now going to food or
gas). I wrote on the weekly earnings roundup

Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS) - This is a Wall Street favorite this is exactly the type of
product that a poorer America will have to cut back spending on. Maybe
not this earnings period, but over the next year, much of the growth in
this name will be new store expansion; but I could see same store sales
beginning to deteriorate the higher food and energy prices go.

The problem with investing in anything to do with the US consumer is one day you could wake up and gets your Dicks [Sporting Goods] (DKS) handed
to you (down 17% as I type this). Folks, analysts (and many
companies) continue to live in a fantasy world and their 2nd half
earnings estimates are far too high. Further, MANY of these companies
are now showing year over year earnings reductions - yet the stock
prices go higher each time the Kool Aid is brought out and the "2nd
half recovery" is discussed - so people are paying more for less
(earnings). More for less? Doesn't sound like something I'd like to buy.