Are drybulk shippers capsizing?

Filed under: Industry, Columns, Stocks to Buy

Editor's Note: This post was written by Fil Zucchi, one of Minyanville's many sharp minds.

Drybulk shippers have been slammed over the last few days courtesy of a plunge in capesize spot rates. However, according to the sharp eyes at Dahlman Rose, the volume of new spot fixtures has been exceedingly low of late. And taking a slightly longer perspective, spot rates are up more than 100% since last year.

A few things to keep in mind:

• Not all shippers are created equal: Dryships NASDAQ:DRYS) plays in almost strictly in the spot market and therefore it stands to reason that it should swing hard with spot rates. After closing the purchase of Quintana Marine, Excel Maritime (NYSE:EXM) now has a decent balance of long term and short term fixtures contracts. And then you have an outfit like Paragon Shipping (NASDAQ:PRGN) with most of its fleet leased out on long term - fixed price contracts.
  
  


• Despite the vast differences in the business models of these three companies, the market has not been very discerning in how it has treated its stocks, which suggests that there may be some arbitrage opportunity, should one wish to play it that way.
  
  


• Despite growing economic risks in China, it's tough to envision a collapse of infrastructure build-outs, or a sudden change in food needs in the BRIC countries and around the world in general. As long as these two activities hold up, it's tough to see a collpase in the shipping business;
  
  


• I can't stress enough that my long side interest in EXM and PRGN is heavily influenced by some sizable, and so far not so succesful, shorts in broad commodity ETF's.
  
  


• And lastly, the volatility in the shippers offers some very attractive options selling opportunities.
  
  (Positions in EXM, PRGN)

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