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6/16 - "It is human psychology that leads us to believe that buying in a market where prices are up 300% is safer than buying when the market is down 80%. When markets are dramatically up there is a sense of confidence in the air, when the markets are severely down the confidence is replaced with fear...If we look at the past decade, many investors missed the chances to buy stocks following the .com crash, 9/11, Tsunami, SARS and now the credit crises. Many investors I knew felt more comfortable buying Pets.com stock at its height instead of buying Amazon (AMZN) when the Nasdaq crashed 80%. In addition to my typical look at high cash, low debt, high ROE and high ROI, a few simple rules should be stuck to when buying during a market crash. 1) Stick to big names and blue chips stocks.
"Lets say you buy 10 blue chip stocks at a 50% discount. If 5 go out of business and 5 recover to original levels you break even. If you buy at a 60%, 70%, 80% or greater discount your hedge grows. At 80% off previous high’s, if you bought 10 stocks, 8 can go out of business and if 2 recover you will break even. The odds are squarely in your favor."
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3 Related Views
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risk: moderate |
S&P 500 Charts Paint Bearish Picture
6/16 - "On the SPYs, notice the market rose in a nice channel from the beginning of 2004 until the end of 2006 when the market broke through upside resistance. The market continued rising until it formed a double top in 2007. Since then, the index has moved through both the upper and lower trend lines of the 2004 - 2007 channel. Prices have moved through the lower trend line going up and have n...
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risk: moderate |
Investor Sentiment Readings Give Mixed Outlook
6/14 - "The retail investors as measured by the American Association of Individual Investor’s weekly sentiment survey are astonishingly pessimistic: 54% bearish...To find a more gloomy view from the retail investor’s camp we’d have to go back to mid January when the AAII sentiment reached 59% bearish."
"Mark Hulbert is worried that while we may have put in a significant bottom with the March...
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risk: moderate |
Excessive Inflation Fears Creating Buying Opportunity
6/13 - "There is a mistaken assumption out there that commodity prices somehow influence the overall level of prices. A look at historical data, though, shows that it just isn't necessarily the case...Yes, it is true that the spikes in oil in the 70s did lead to inflation, but it was A cause not necessarily THE cause. Clearly, our economy, which is so much more service-oriented than three de...
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I'm with you. I would cross reference 1 idea. Gold is down 10% since mid-March while ABX and the Juniors are down 25%. Sentiment driven selling has created a great market for stocks in metals while inflation, credit, housing, politics, and unrest have created the perfect storm for gold futures. What created high gold prices was the fear of bad news, and now we have had some. We breathed. If we actually had bad news (gas, NG, inflation, Iran, Hamas, Chavez, food prices, more housing defaults, credit card failure, unemployment, financial services fraud...ring a bell?), we might see gold easily at 1200 and ABX at 60. If platinum hits 2,500, then palladium will hit 625. Silver at 25. This is a volatile layer of the economy and many people are frightened into panic and hording easily. It's a thought. runningturtle87
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