Vegas Stock Play: Long Boyd, Short Perini

6/27 - "Today, I'm adding Boyd Gaming to the mock portfolio as a stock to own...Boyd currently owns attractive properties catering to the Las Vegas locals market, along with riverboat and land casinos in Illinois, Indiana, Mississippi and Louisiana. Boyd also jointly owns the popular high-end Borgata Casino in Atlantic City with MGM Mirage."

"Owning Boyd shares is a good bet today for two reasons. One is that the stock is trading at a trough earnings multiple that compares to that of the 2001 recession, when casino industry profits were hurt by the terrorist attacks of September 11.

The second reason to own the stock is that there is a good chance the economy will improve in 2010, just prior to the opening of Echelon Place...Using conservative estimates on future earnings and the returns from the Echelon development, I feel the stock is worth $18, which implies about 30% upside from current levels."

"To hedge against owning Boyd, I recommend shorting Perini stock. The construction company is heavily reliant on commercial building, which represents about 80% of revenue...Perini is the contractor on the Cosmopolitan Resort and Casino, which is being built right next to the MGM City Center development on the Vegas Strip (where Perini is also the contractor).

Perini shares plunged earlier this year when the developer of the Cosmopolitan defaulted on his loan from Deutsche Bank DB, but shares have since erased some of those losses...If Deutsche Bank decides that every new dollar being sunk into the project is just another lost dollar, then Perini risks losing the rest of this contract, which would be a severe hit to its revenue, and its stock."