Bevy of Earnings - Monday on Tap

The next 2 weeks have an enormous amount of earnings data - most days we're going to have to break this out daily to keep up. There is a lot to look at but I'll try to focus on a key few names that readers might be interested in.

For our fund holdings here is the breakout for the week

• Monday: Apple (AAPL)
• Tuesday: Illumina (ILMN), Jacobs Engineering Group (JEC), XTO Energy (XTO)
• Wednesday: Baidu.com (BIDU)
• Thursday: Cabot Oil & Gas (COG), Vale (RIO), Potash (POT)
• Friday: N/A

Now on to Monday specifically...

First of all Apple (AAPL) the serial "underpromiser" - the question each quarter is how the market reacts to this underpromise. I say every quarter add 15 cents+ to whatever they say. 2 quarters ago they said 94 cents - and the stock was absolutely obliterated (and we went along for the ride). I said nonsense - in Apple years 94 cents means $1.10 but it's like talking to a wall when hedge funds go wild. What did they end up reporting? $1.16 [Apr 23: Apple Nice Solid Result] But using "logic" didn't help us from avoiding a massive plunge in the stock and our account value in this name.

So now they have guided to $1.00, I wrote in April that means $1.22; analysts have them at $1.08. Let's see how it plays out . Either way I've cut back exposure as you know I believe "tech is safe" is a ridiculous thesis, even though I like a few names like Apple the best. But with expectations high and the stock at a premium valuation I'd rather let this play out and hope the market panics on a conservative guidance so I can buy lower. If not, we have plenty of other opportunities.

Outside of the portfolio here are some major names I am watching

• American Movil (AMX) - powerhouse telecom company in Latin America; valuation has come in quite a bit from the past few years and growth is still solid. Chart has been very weak though.
• American Express (AMEX) - always on the look out for further delinquency data, and of course they deal with more of the higher end customer
• Bank of America (BAC) - as we wrote in the weekly position update, the behavior of the financials early this week will be telling. Specific to BAC, how is the absorption of Countrywide Financial and that mess of mortgages they took on affecting them?
• Homex Development (HXM) - we just closed out this Mexican homebuilder position to raise cash late last week
• Schering-Plough (SGP) - a former holding that was sort of a snoozer; with the move to healthcare as a safety valve sector how will the market react and/or what is the company specific news to this former favorite who has fallen on hard times
• Steel Dynamics (STLD) - if I wrote this 3 weeks ago it would be "steel is great, hedge funds like steel - buy steel". Now I write "steel is awful, China doesn't need steel and the story is just an overblown mirage - sell steel." Of course the truth is somewhere in between.