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Gerdau (GGB) Stellar Earnings

 Aug 07, 2008 12:30 PM UTC
Symbol Sentiment Start Return Closed
GGB n/a

Graphic_arrow1 Via Fund my Mutual Fund:  

Ah Gerdau (GGB) - they once loved you so [May 16: Brazil is Sexy] ... you used to appear on our top weekly performing stocks almost weekly. It is a shame the rest of the world will be entering a period of anarchy, rioting, famine and a return to lifestyles of the 1960s. Just in case the hedge funds are wrong on that thesis we will keep an eye out on you... this will probably be your last good quarter before the house of cards that is global growth implodes on itself, as America rightfully takes its place as supreme being and overlord.

  • Brazilian steelmaker Gerdau (GGB) said on Wednesday its net profit soared 85 percent in the second quarter, lifted by red-hot demand for steel products around the globe and a big increase in output.
  • Net income surged to 2.12 billion reais ($1.35 billion) from 1.15 billion reais in the second quarter of 2007 and 1.09 billion reais in the first quarter of this year.
  • Gerdau, which has operations throughout the Americas and Europe, said strong demand for steel in all the countries where it operates helped propel sales sharply higher. (that all ends soon though, oil going to $100 means global pestilence and the End of Days)
  • Net revenue rose 47 percent in the quarter to 11.1 billion reais, led by a 59 percent jump in sales in North America, where demand for steel remains robust despite the economic slowdown in the United States. (aha - proof of the coming economic rebound in the US - someone send this info to Mr. Kudlow - STAT!)
  • A weak U.S. dollar allowed Gerdau's mills in the United States to increase exports significantly, mostly to Central America, the Caribbean, Asia and even South America.
  • In Brazil, Gerdau's second-biggest market after North America, net revenue increased 47.5 percent, driven by robust demand from the construction and automobile industries.
  • Gerdau also significantly increased production last quarter thanks to a slew of recent acquisitions and the inauguration of a new blast furnace at its Gerdau Acominas unit in Brazil.
  • Output of raw steel products like steel plates rose 26.2 percent to 5.64 million tonnes, led by a 39.1 percent increase in North America, where Gerdau completed its takeover of Chaparral Steel. In Brazil, output climbed 15.8 percent.
  • With Brazil's economy growing at its fastest pace in decades, Johannpeter said Gerdau is looking to increase production further to keep up with demand. Gerdau's board recently approved plans to invest $277 million to further expand capacity at its Acominas unit to 5 million tonnes annually in 2010 from 4.5 million tonnes currently, he said. (yes yes but this will create over supply in the coming End of Days scenario as we enter a post modern Mad Max world) [However it is positive for metallurgical coal - ahem]
  • "The Brazilian economy is in a new phase of growth and this project fits into that outlook," Johannpeter said. (all lies - hedge fund computers can look ahead 6-9 months and see the end of the Brazilian party)
So once again let's review - the current thesis is "reverse decoupling" of America from the rest of the world. We will rebound, and the rest of the world will crumble. We use a ton of commodities but not enough to support prices like the rest of the world. Nope. So commodities will deflate since all they are is a bubble, and you need to sell the stocks.

Absurd? Perhaps. But that's the thesis and to go against it will cause you to lose money. Until "they" reverse the thesis and say "time to buy these darn cheap commodities". When will we know it's time to change course? The charts will tell us. And the chart below says "not yet" - each return upward to the 50 day moving average the past 5 weeks is simply a time to sell and then short. When that stops working - it's time to be bullish.

No position




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