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Bookkeeping: Starting Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) Position

 Aug 11, 2008 05:56 PM UTC
Symbol Sentiment Start Return Closed
BWLD Positive 08/11/08 +13.09% --
PNRA n/a

Graphic_arrow1 Via Fund my Mutual Fund:  

Panera Bread (PNRA) and Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) are both favorite places to eat, are reasonable cost places to eat for those who don't want just "fast food" and now have excellent charts. Both look like good purchases for the fund, and I've owned both these over the years in personal account, but I went with the latter - it's a bit more expensive but a higher growth rate and less saturated across the U.S. - but that is really irrelevant - it's all about charts anyhow.

We started Buffalo Wild Wings with a 2.5% stake in the low $38s. Much like the airlines, or any retailer at this point we face the danger of "chasing" a stock after a huge move - but this price action seems relentless - I thought the same thing a few days ago and only watch these stocks move up and up. Right now the name of the stock is immaterial - be it a casino, clothing store, or restaurant - it's all "one big trade" - the anti-oil trade.

For those few of you who still delve into the black magic arts... otherwise known as fundamental analysis.... here is why, unlike the junk that is flying up 25% a week, I can at least (somewhat) sleep at night with BWLD in the portfolio. Keep in mind chicken prices should appreciate considerably in the year ahead but the market could care less right now. You do have to respect the fact they can continue to see strong same store sales growth in a down economy.

  • Restaurant operator Buffalo Wild Wings Inc (BWLD) posted a 46 percent rise in quarterly profit, beating market estimates, and said it was confident of achieving its targets for 2008, sending its shares up 13 percent.
  • Several initiatives like stores remodeling and marketing the company has taken appeared to be working and boosting sales, Morgan Keegan & Co Inc analyst Destin Tompkins said by phone.
  • The operator of Buffalo Wild Wings Grill and Bar restaurants earned $5.6 million, or 31 cents per share, for the second quarter ended June 29. It reported a profit of $3.8 million, or 22 cents per share, last year.
  • Total revenue rose 29 percent to $97.9 million, said the company
  • Same-store sales increased 8.3 percent at company-owned restaurants and 4.5 percent at franchised restaurants. Buffalo Wild currently operates 521 restaurants in 37 states.
  • Average weekly sales for company-owned restaurants rose 10.7 percent to $40,572 for the second quarter, while franchised restaurants averaged $46,390, up 5.4 percent from the year-ago period.
  • "(Chicken) wing prices remained relatively low during the quarter and at least to date, have not increased. So, they continued to be favorable for the company," Tompkins said.
  • For 2008, the Minneapolis-based company said it was confident of achieving its targets of net earnings growth of 25 percent, revenue growth of 20 percent, and unit growth of 15 percent.
Jul 30 Barron's Article
Jul 30 WSJ Article

Valuation is very rich at 27x forward earnings but since people don't want fertilizer at 7x forward earnings we need to pay up for the hottest stocks in the market ;) Aye carumba. We continue to make quite serious changes to the fund - until people wake up and figure out lower oil prices are signaling serious weakness in global economies - this is the "trend" to ride. The 1 year high is $42 so I'd expect the stock to stall out there.

Long Buffalo Wild Wings in fund; no personal position



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