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Via Fund my Mutual Fund:
One of our long running themes has been the "Pooring of America" as costs of life overcome wage increases in the country for the lower and middle classes - it has been happening slowly but surely over the past decade - median wages have not kept up with inflation even if you use the government's faulty understated inflation figures. [Do The Bottom 80% of Americans Stand a Chance] Using reality the unwashed masses are falling even further behind, and without lines of credit available in great quantity as they once were (including house ATM) this problem will now be exposed (and has been the past year) as the tide washes out.
From a portfolio management point of view this helps build up our "consumer" side of the ledger - we are not hopeful for the US consumer but every so often (the past 5 weeks for example) consumer stocks rampage off of oversold levels and we are on the outside looking in. So this helps us get some exposure on that side and still fits into our wheelhouse of catering to the area of retail we think more and more Americans have been and will continue to migrate to (downscale) [Dec 26: Target Shoppers Turning into Walmart Shoppers] Remember, we have noticed the trend the past few months that trend breakouts are not working (buying stocks as they break out) since by the time the breakout happens the move is 80%+ over and we're just scraping for crumbs as returns when the stock reverses after failed breakout. So we are adjusting and now looking for fundamental stories we like... ok... fundamental stories we can live with... and have pulled back. This is a classic case. When breakouts work for 2-3 months we'll switch back to our preferred method. Technically the stock pulled back to near its 200 day moving average ($36.50s) so we're buying here. We are starting with a 2.5% stake in the upper $37s. After a gap down like this, there is some damage to the chart so I don't expect any imminent rebound, and $43 is going to provide a world of resistance but that's a good 15% higher and if we can get that in 6 months it would be a good reutrn. If the stock breaks below $36.00 level we'll take the smaller loss and cut back simply for technical reasons. The stock is quite rich at just under 18x forward estimates for barely double digit growth but this is the type of stock the money flow is going to, and valuations mean nothing nowadays. Important distinction about this bipolar market - not 4 days ag we had retailer flying up 10-15% on what I considered bad earnings reports/guidance; today we have a few retailers with what I see as solid reports and they are being beaten. This market has no memory from 1 week to the other, and what works one week fails the next. The "rotation" of money from week to week, or day to day, or month to month is relentless and nothing works for long periods of time. A very difficult market for anyone who does not have very short time frames.[Jul 23: Costco Warning & McDonald's Continues to Be Dinner of Choice for Pooring Americans] Long BJ's Wholesale Club in fund and personal account
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