Reggie Middleton on the Hartford Insurance Group: The Pathology of a Faltering Insurer

I've received a lot of email since releasing my HIG research to non-paying subscribers. Unfortunately, this wasn't the inquiries of a bunch of people who were just too stingy to pay a subscription. It was the heartfelt concern of those who worked for, invested in, and rely on the Hartford. I do not give financial planning advice and absolutely do not want to be responsible for yelling fire in a crowded theater, but I am also sensitive to those who are concerned. I know I would be if I was on the other end. So, I have decided to congeal my research into a simple visual, and present it on the blog for all to see. I am presenting the facts as I have found them through my research, and will leave it up to the readers to draw from it that they may. More extensive research is available to those who register (http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_acctexp&task=subscribe&Itemid=99) (you must register and subscribe, but have the option to choose a free subscription if you desire).

Who am I? My logo above tells the story. What I do through this blog is take Micro views of Macro Global Markets... I am one part investigative (new media) journalist, one part global macro investor, and one part forensic accountant - with a team of driven geniuses at my helm. We start with a top down approach from a global macro perspective to locate opportunities (see my style (http://boombustblog.com/index.php/20081008639/The-Great-Global-Macro-Experiment-Revisited.html)), then we use traditional (yet untraditionally thorough) fundamental and quantitative analysis to find companies within those opportunistic sectors. At that point we don our forensic accountant hats (including a literal financial microscope) and dig deeper than practically anybody in the business. How deep, you ask? See GGP and the type of investigative analysis you will not get from your brokerage house (http://boombustblog.com/index.php/20080615425/GGP-and-the-type-of-investigative-analysis-you-will-not-get-from-your-brokerage-house.html) for an example. I, and my paying subscribers, are very happy with the results (http://boombustblog.com/index.php/Sample-Research.html). Just click the hyperlinked words that follow the definition of Hartford Insurance Group's ticker to see what we've done in the past.

The Hartford Insurance Group's ticker is also an acronym, H.I.G. - Hey! It's Gonna be different this time, fellas. Management either expicitly states or implies that they are adequately capitalized, things are getting better, and they are going to be just fine. Hmmm! Who else has said this? Let's list a small sampling:

Lehman Brothers (http://boombustblog.com/index.php/20080221162/Is-Lehman-really-a-lemming-in-disguise.html),
Bear Stearns (http://boombustblog.com/content/view/142/34/),
MBIA (http://boombustblog.com/index.php/2007111333/A-Super-Scary-Halloween-Tale-of-104-Basis-Points-Pt-I-amp-II-by-Reggie-Middleton.html),
Ambac (http://boombustblog.com/index.php/2007120644/Monolines-swoon-CDOs-go-boom-amp-I-really-wonder-why-the-ratings-agencies-are-given-any-credibili.html),
General Growth Properties (http://boombustblog.com/index.php/20080615425/GGP-and-the-type-of-investigative-analysis-you-will-not-get-from-your-brokerage-house.html),
Countrywide/Washington Mutual (http://boombustblog.com/index.php/20070908106/Yeah-Countrywide-is-pretty-bad-but-it-ain%92t-the-only-one-at-the-subprime-party%85-Comparing-Countryw.html),
and about a dozen (of the Doo-Doo 32) banks (http://boombustblog.com/component/option,com_myblog/show,As-I-see-it-32-commercial-banks-and-thrifts-may-see-the-feces-hit-the-fan-blades.html/Itemid,20/),

said the exact same thing right before they went "Poof!". But this time, it's different, Right?!!!

Paying subscribers who are curious about my thoughts on HIG's latest management proclamations and guidance from a valuation perspective should download the Actionable Intelligence note for today: HIG Actionable Intelligence Update 8-12-08 (49.96 kB 2008-12-08 08:54:33)

Non-paying and unregistered onlookers may view my older opinions and research on this company via my online multimedia presentation. I may appear a little slow since the videos were recorded between 12 am and 3 am in the morning. Things will be a little more chipper when I create the presentations during normal hours with a little more sleep. See that handsome brother they call Reggie in the H.I.G.Hey! It's Gonna be different this time multimedia presentation. No registrations or subscriptions are needed. I am experimenting with this format and will probably be delivering more content in this fashion in the future.

Once you have registered and chosen the free subscription option (if you choose not to pursue the premium research), you can access these other goodies that I have produced on the Hartford without charge:

Hartford Insurance Group spreads and counterparty/debt holders - pro (149 kB 2008-11-01 09:39:04)
This is an Excel 2007 binary document, and either the newest version of
excel or equivalent excel reader will be needed to acceess it.

10/25/08 Insurance Industry Update - Professional w/inventory addendum (7.5 MB 2008-10-27 03:00:37)

Hartford Insurance Group Forensic Analysis - Pro (619.29 kB 2008-11-06 08:44:34)