Q4 Warning and Moody's Support My Jarden Short Thesis

Last week, Jarden Corp. (JAH) issued a press release indicating that its Q4 08 sales would be roughly $1.3B compared to analyst estimates of $1.5B. While sales for Q4 08 will be well below Street estimates, the Company did not reveal any margin information and also indicated that JAH 2009 revenues would be $5B or 8% below Street estimates of $5.4B.

JAH also expects 2009 cash flow less capital expenditures will be $250MM. Moody's Investors Services quickly followed up by issuing a negative outlook on the Company. While it has taken far longer than anticipated, it appears that the Street may slowly be coming around to understanding the risks facing JAH.