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Via Fund my Mutual Fund:
I've been looking at ways to play the "impending" housing recovery without touching housing related retailers or home builders. One such name is Ocwen Financial (OCN) which we discussed yesterday [Feb 3: Freddie Mac to Outsource Delinquent Collections -Ocwen Financial Chosen to Start]. I also mentioned the title insurer stocks in late December [Dec 26: Ways to Play the Housing Boom - Title Insurers] I have been struggling to find ways to play the refinance "boom" outside of Bankrate.com (RATE) which we mentioned December 3rd [Dec 3: Mortgage Applications Spike to Record] While I believe purchases of homes (ex - foreclosures) will continue to disappoint bulls, along with the % of refinance applications actually being approved - 5%, 4.5% and potentially even lower interest rates that the government will eventually take us to are going to have some effects. Foreclosure are now close to 1 in 2 sales in the entire country so at 50%+ listed price some volume of sales should occur. These names have been on our "watch list" ever since [Jan 11: Playbook for the Week] and today the first of the "Big 3" reported. Recent trends are enticing and with my belief that Obama & Co are going to throw the kitchen sink at attempts to get people to buy houses - this is a way to play that without counting on "new homes" as you would by buying a homebuilder. My thesis is that sales will begin to pick up in the housing market, because half of all sales are now "distressed". Bulls will misread this as a "return to good times" - it won't be. It will be fire sales... but I don't care; all I care about on this specific thesis is homes are changing hands - if they sell for $1 or $1 million is irrelevent to me. First National Financial (FNF) is the largest of the three title insurers and recently acquired LandAmerica Financial Group which should give it about 45% of the space. Here is what they had to say today. (full report here) The headcount reduction is about a quarter of the LandAmerica workforce.
Technically we can see the stock has held up well during this recent downturn the past month, and bulls are heartened by today's news. I've had buy limit orders multiple times but I've pulled them back at the last minute because I was not 100% sure of the thesis here. I also generally like to watch how a stock trades for a few weeks before pulling the trigger. The data we saw today makes me more solid in my conviction (I've never owned of these stocks before so hence my trepidation) - so now I'll be looking to buy during the next period of market duress. Peers Stewart Information Services (STC) and First America (FAF) are up in sympathy. Long Ocwen Financial in fund; no personal position
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