Solar Stocks: Cowen Cuts Ests On Falling Module ASPs

Cowen analyst Robert Stone this morning slashed his estimates on companies making silicon-based solar modules, noting that pricing has “taken another leg down since May.”

At the Intersolar conference in May, he notes in a research report, expectations were for a 15% sequential drop in pricing in Q2, but with Q3 showing a low-single digit change. But he now thinks that modules for tier one Chinese players could drop to $2/watt by year end, a slide of 15%-20% in the second half.

He also notes that spot polysilicon prices are down to $60-$75/kg from the high 70s in May, with wafers “trending well below $1/watt.”

Stone is actually fairly upbeat on the companies; falling prices make solar systems attractive to more buyers.

That said, his estimates have come down sharply:

• China Sunergy (CSUN): 2009 EPS to -63 cents from -42 cents. 2010 to 16 cents, from 28 cents.


• Evergreen Solar (ESLR): 2009 EPS to -63 cents, from -54 cents. 2010 to -22 cents, from -9 cents.


• SunPower (SPWRA): 2009 EPS to 97 cents, from $1.13. 2010 EPS to $1.82, from $2.04.


• Suntech (STP): 2009 EPS to 25 cents, from 27 cents. 2010 to 60 cents, from 65 cents.


• Trina Solar (TSL): 2009 EPS to 86 cents, from $1.30. 2010 to $2.27, from $2.85.

In today’s trading:

• CSUN is down 27 cents, or 5.9%, to $4.34.


• ESLR is down 30 cents, or 12.9%, to $2.01.


• SPWRA is down $2.06, or 7.2%, to $26.43.


• STP is down $1.17, or 6.5%, to $16.87.


• TSL is down $1, or 4.4%, to $21.98.