Bookkeeping: Short Las Vegas Sands (LVS) - Trader Mark

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Bookkeeping: Short Las Vegas Sands (LVS)
Jul 09, 2009 07:45 PM UTC

Trader Mark

Return	Risk
-7.66%	MID

Analyst

Profile & Performance

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Symbol	Sentiment	Start	Return	Closed
WYNN	n/a
LVS	n/a

Via Fund my Mutual Fund:

There are so many stocks that are just below where I want to short them; we have about 8 stop limit orders and all were within spitting range at the peak today but none hit - so I am going to make a reach here with Las Vegas Sands (LVS)

I've had a limit short order for peer Wynn Resorts (WYNN) sitting here just over $34 but it's not biting; intraday high of $33.40.

Instead I'll try LVS - I'd prefer to short $7.70 but that just missed too, intraday high $7.67; I'm shorting just under $7.50 with close to a 3% stake. I will stop out at $8.02.

There is much joy and happiness because of "2nd derivative improvement" in the gaming sector. Just as with retailers people are focusing on revenue and same store sales and not realizing the discounts going on; hotel rooms in Las Vegas are basically being handed out. Eventually we have to price companies on "profits" again, don't we? Not just on staying alive?

Shares of casino stocks rose on Thursday after the Nevada Gaming Control Board released gaming revenues for May that showed a moderating decline. In a report posted to its Website, the state entity said Nevada gaming revenues were down 8.34 percent in May and off 13.71 percent for the year to date. Revenue on the Las Vegas Strip was down 6.36 percent for the month and down 15.31 percent for the year to date.
The May result compared with a statewide gaming revenue decline of 14.07 percent that was reported for April 2009.
Jeffrey Logsdon of BMO Capital Markets said in a client note that the statewide results were "clearly a less worse scenario" than the 13.7 percent decline seen in the year-to-date period.
"Our channel checks continue to confirm that Memorial Day weekend was full, albeit at promotional room pricing," Logsdon said.

This type of stuff below from analysts is almost funny.... if not for the fact they get paid to put out these missives.

Logsdon also noted that the Strip's dropoff was "a sentimental victory at least" when compared with the 15.3 percent year-to-date decline.

Sorry, let me dab my eye as my heart sighs in emotion at the uplifting story of a casino and it's

puppy. What's the PE ratio for a Golden Retriever? Sorry, it is hard to google such information in between the tears streaming down my cheek. Cmon are we serious Mr. Logsdon? Sentimental victories? Talk about stretching for green shoots.

Again, things are terrible year over year but not as terrible as last month. Despite massive discounts. Buy stocks.

"I think there are some expectations out there that this is potentially the beginning of a recovery for the industry," he added.

I have only tiny individual short exposure right now, so I'll replace the Potash short with LVS for now as I hope for another up day tomorrow to get some of these other shorts to lock in. In case the market sinks I at least have something going on the short side.

Further, a slew of commercial REITs have fallen over (many we were obliterated shorting in April) and as we noted a week or so ago, insurance companies look awful. It's starting to feel all February 2009 again - except for the banks which the government says won't be allowed to fail (cue music from "We're Not Japan" here). Can't be long before the Fed rides to the rescue with Program # 218,105. One day they will figure out that despite all the national treasure they wasted prices will go where they will go. Nah, they'll never figure it out.

Short Las Vegas Sands in fund; no personal position

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