Primus Guaranty Earnings: Expect Stock to Continue to Rise

Last week, I noted that Primus (PRS) announced a fairly significant “credit mitigation” transaction, which clipped the tail risk on about $1.2 billion in notional CDS. Because Primus discloses such events and credit losses as they occur, and the company not writing new CDS business, non-GAAP earnings aren’t really a surprise – economic results of $47.5 million came from CDS premiums (no credit events in Q2) and a repurchase of debt at a large discount.

The most interesting development is that Primus is now using its float – over $730 million at quarter’s end – to invest in investment grade corporates. On the conference call, CFO Richard Claiden said that $20 million of holding company capital was now allocated this way, and subsequently Primus Financial has started doing the same. In the second quarter, Primus’ interest income from short-duration risk-free assets was a mere 0.61%. With the iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) yielding 5.59%, there’s plenty of room for improvement in the yield on that capital (which is about 5.6x Primus’ current market cap). My valuation model ballparks a 100 basis point improvement in yield over the duration of Primus’ current swap portfolio as being worth 58 cents per share in terminal value. There’s value to be captured here, and investing in investment grade corporates is a natural way to leverage Primus’ credit evaluation abilities.