Philadelphia Fed's Bullish Report

"Davidson" submits:

The Philadelphia Fed report on the business outlook survey has startled Wall Street and set abuzz chatter regarding the long forecasted V-Shaped Recovery by Wesbury. This report was so far better than expected 4.2 vs. an expected -0.2 that Treasuries fell in value as investors sold to buy stocks. The report can be accessed at the URL here and I have presented the relevant chart below.

The market is if anything anticipatory. On CNBC @4:30PM yesterday John Herrmann of Herrmann Forecast LLP commented that he expected the Sept. Purchasing Managers Index(PMI) to show new orders up dramatically to ~59% level.

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It would be convenient if investing could be so simple that we could take these pieces of information and invest with confidence into just the right sectors and asset classes. But, the markets are anything if convenient and predictable. While the Return/Risk appears to favor many asset classes, approaching the market with a balanced portfolio has always proven in the long run to have been a prudent strategy. There is always present no matter how bullish the news seems to be developing the significant uncertainty of unseen events. We always know what we would like to have as a return, but we can never know when an unpredicted event will spook the market confidence and implode our short term needs.

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