Can We Really Trust The Leading Economic Indicators?

Leading economic indicators are soaring and inquiring minds are wondering if they signal a strong recovery is in the works. First let's consider the Bullish case from the ECRI.

Please consider U.S. recovery 'unlikely to falter' anytime soon-ECRI

Oct 2 (Reuters) - An index of future U.S. economic growth slipped in the latest week, but its yearly growth rate climbed to a new record high, indicating a smooth recovery in the near-term, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 127.1 in the week to Sept. 25 from an upwardly revised 127.9 the prior week, which was originally reported as 127.8.

Last week's figure marked a 60-week high.

The index's yearly growth rate rose to new all-time high of 25.1 percent in the latest reading from 24.3 percent the prior week.

"With WLI growth rising to yet another record high, the economic recovery is highly unlikely to falter in the next few months," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan.

Oct 2 (Reuters) - A monthly gauge of U.S. inflation pressures continued to rise in September to an 11-month high, suggesting an upswing in prices expected in an economic recovery, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, rose to 90.6 in September from an upwardly revised 89.7 in August, which was originally reported at 89.6.

"The upturns in the USFIG and its components have become fairly pronounced, pervasive and persistent. Thus, while this is not yet a significant policy concern, U.S. inflation is on the cusp of a cyclical upswing," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

"Since reaching a peak in July 2007, the LEI fell for twenty months – the longest downtrend since the mid 1970s – but it has been rising since April and its gains have become very widespread," says Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. "The six-month growth rate of the LEI continues to accelerate. At the same time, the downtrend in the coincident economic index, measuring current economic activity, seems to be stabilizing, with the index flat so far this quarter."

Says Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board: "The LEI has risen for five consecutive months and the coincident economic index has stopped falling. Taken together, this suggests that the recession is bottoming out. These numbers are consistent with the view that after a very severe downturn, a recovery is very near. But, the intensity and pattern of that recovery is more uncertain."

One of the things that many market commentators and research houses have pointed at to support their bullish outlook on the stock market are the leading economic indicators. I have had the sneaky suspicion that the aggressive and unprecedented actions on the part of the Fed have played a significant role in the LEI given a misleading signal as to an economic turnaround it is forecasting, while the economic components would likely paint a different picture. It is important to understand the makeup of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) and the weights that each component makes up of the LEI. Below is the breakdown of the ten indicators that make up the LEI and their respective weights in the index. As seen below, the three financial indicators make up approximately 50% of the LEI while the seven economic components make up the other 50%, with the M2 money supply alone making up 35.8% of the total LEI. Money makes the world go round, I guess, according to the LEI.



Shown below are the YOY rate of change growth rates in the Conference Board’s LEI and my indexes of the economic and monetary components separated out. What is a clear take away is that the monetary LEI is doing the heavy lifting as the economic LEI remains in negative territory.

What you can also see is that beginning in the 1980s the growth rate between the monetary and economic LEI began to show a greater disparity in their growth rates than they did in the 1970s. What this would tend to imply is that a greater level of monetary stimulus measures were needed to translate into improved economic growth rates. This aligns with the second chart below that shows the dollar increase in debt per dollar increase in GDP, which shows higher amounts of debt were needed to produce a dollar of GDP, and we are fast approaching the “Zero Hour” in which rising debt does not translate into increased economic growth, or the “pay the piper” moment for our economy.



Zero Hour - Debt Fails To Add To GDP



Further illustrating the notion that it is taking record stimulus just to keep growth going is the YOY growth rate difference between the Monetary LEI and the Economic LEI, with the disparity between the two growth rates at the highest level in the last half century.



The above charts simply illustrate that our economy is fundamentally weak and instead of allowing our economy to sober up after its debt binge, our monetary and governmental authorities are trying to keep the economy drunk and chugging along, using greater amounts of monetary alcohol than ever before.

• Total Private -.1
• Goods producing -.1
• Mining and Logging -.2
• Construction -.4
• Manufacturing -.1
• Durable Goods -.1
• Nondurable Goods -.1

Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
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